Regular Season - 16 · 28 November 2026, 13:15 UTC

Botev Vratsa vs Ludogorets First League prediction

Hristo Botev Stadium, Vraca

Our model says: Botev Vratsa 0–1 Ludogorets

The model makes it 17% Botev Vratsa, 26% draw, 57% Ludogorets — fair odds of 5.88, 3.85 and 1.75.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).

Expected goals: Botev Vratsa 0.72, Ludogorets 1.78.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

One-sided: Ludogorets are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 14 November 2026 · updated 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Botev Vratsa's rating is built from 51 Bulgarian First League matches and Ludogorets's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 685 matches.

Key facts

Botev Vratsa are 13th on 10 points from 14 games; Ludogorets are 3rd on 30 points from 13 games — First League.
Botev Vratsa have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
Ludogorets have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to CSKA 1948.
Last 6 meetings: Ludogorets 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended Ludogorets 2–1 Botev Vratsa.

More Bulgarian First League predictions

All Bulgarian First League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Botev Vratsa vs Ludogorets

43%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Botev Vratsa win Draw Ludogorets win

0–114%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
0–38%
1–36%

Scores read Botev Vratsa first; the other scorelines share the remaining 31%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Ludogorets at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Botev Vratsa vs Ludogorets

Botev Vratsa

First League

L1-2Lokomotiv Plovdiv7 November 2026
L0-1away to Cherno More Varna2 November 2026
D1-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia24 October 2026
L0-1Spartak Varna10 October 2026
D2-2away to Dunav Ruse19 September 2026

Ludogorets

First League

D2-2CSKA 19487 November 2026
W3-0away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv31 October 2026
L0-2away to CSKA Sofia26 October 2026
W5-0Arda Kardzhali12 October 2026
W2-1Septemvri Sofia14 September 2026

What these results say

Botev Vratsa did not win any of these 5 matches.
Botev Vratsa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Ludogorets scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Ludogorets had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
13	Botev Vratsa	14	2	4	8	11	24	-13	10
3	Ludogorets	13	9	3	1	26	11	+15	30

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Botev Vratsa

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 58% today

Win 39%

Draw 56%

Defeat 63%

Ludogorets

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 17% today

Win 19%

Draw 12%

Defeat 10%

From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Botev Vratsa vs Ludogorets

2 August 2026Ludogorets 2–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
30 November 2025Ludogorets 2–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
25 July 2025Botev Vratsa 0–1 LudogoretsFirst League
23 April 2025Ludogorets 2–0 Botev VratsaCup
10 April 2025Botev Vratsa 0–1 LudogoretsCup
15 March 2025Ludogorets 3–0 Botev VratsaFirst League

Leading scorers: Botev Vratsa and Ludogorets

Botev Vratsa

No player in First League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Ludogorets

GoalsAssists

B. Tekpetey20
Rwan Cruz12

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Botev Vratsa a 0% chance of the title and Ludogorets 16.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Botev Vratsa Ludogorets

0.46 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.85

1.81 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.14

0.72 Model expected goals (this match) 1.78

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ludogorets the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Botev Vratsa against 1.78 for Ludogorets. Botev Vratsa's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.14 for Ludogorets.

Botev Vratsa carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.7 for Ludogorets.

How the model reaches 57% for Ludogorets to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Ludogorets to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Botev Vratsa's ratings add 12 points and Ludogorets's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 57%.

Two average sides, neutral ground35%
Home advantage31%−4
Botev Vratsa's ratings43%+12
Ludogorets's ratings57%+14

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Botev VratsaModelLudogorets

Over 1.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

72%

model, this match

100%

10 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

46%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

24%

model, this match

30%

3 of 10 games

Both teams score

40%

4 of 10 games

43%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Botev VratsaLudogorets

14Matches13

2W 4D 8LRecord9W 3D 1L

11 0.8 per gameGoals scored26 2.0 per game

24 1.7 per gameGoals conceded11 0.8 per game

2 of 14Clean sheets5 of 13

6 of 14Failed to score1 of 13

–Penalties scored–

33 2.4 per gameYellow cards24 1.8 per game

1Red cards2

4-2-3-1 9×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Botev Vratsa at home · Ludogorets away

6Played6

1W 2D 3LRecord4W 1D 1L

3–7Goals for – against11–6

2 of 6Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, First League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Botev VratsaLudogorets

Botev Vratsa are 13th after 14 First League matches (between 6th and 13th so far); Ludogorets are 3rd after 13 (between 1st and 3rd). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All First League matches this season: Botev Vratsa 14, Ludogorets 13.

Botev Vratsa scored 013124

Ludogorets conceded 131025

Botev Vratsa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Ludogorets have let in 5 there.

Ludogorets scored 246723

Botev Vratsa conceded 224655

Ludogorets score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Botev Vratsa have let in 6 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Botev Vratsa

at Slavia Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 25%
vs CSKA Sofia13 Feb · First Leaguewin 16%
at Botev Plovdiv20 Feb · First Leaguewin 22%
vs Arda Kardzhali27 Feb · First Leaguewin 33%

Ludogorets

at Levski Sofia3 Dec · First Leaguewin 30%
vs Cherno More Varna5 Dec · First Leaguewin 65%
at Botev Plovdiv13 Feb · First Leaguewin 50%
at Slavia Sofia20 Feb · First Leaguewin 48%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.