Botev Plovdiv
vs
CSKA Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: Botev Plovdiv 1–2 CSKA Sofia
The model makes it 24% Botev Plovdiv, 26% draw, 50% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 4.17, 3.85 and 2.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Botev Plovdiv 1.08, CSKA Sofia 1.80.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: CSKA Sofia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Botev Plovdiv's rating is built from 49 Bulgarian First League matches and CSKA Sofia's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 685 matches.
Key facts
- Botev Plovdiv are 5th on 23 points from 14 games; CSKA Sofia are top on 34 points from 14 games — First League.
- Botev Plovdiv have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Dunav Ruse.
- CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Levski Sofia.
- Last 6 meetings: CSKA Sofia 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 July 2026, ended CSKA Sofia 3–2 Botev Plovdiv.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Botev Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
CSKA Sofia at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Botev Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
First League
- D1-1Dunav Ruse6 November 2026
- W5-2away to Lokomotiv Sofia30 October 2026
- L0-4away to CSKA 194823 October 2026
- W1-0Slavia Sofia10 October 2026
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia19 September 2026
CSKA Sofia
First League
- W3-0away to Levski Sofia8 November 2026
- D0-0Slavia Sofia31 October 2026
- W2-0Ludogorets26 October 2026
- W3-2away to CSKA 194811 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 September 2026
What these results say
- Botev Plovdiv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- CSKA Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 32 | 9 | +23 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Botev Plovdiv
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
CSKA Sofia
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 40% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Botev Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia
- 27 July 2026CSKA Sofia 3–2 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 22 November 2025CSKA Sofia 2–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 19 July 2025Botev Plovdiv 1–1 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 26 May 2025Botev Plovdiv 0–4 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 9 May 2025CSKA Sofia 3–0 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 22 February 2025Botev Plovdiv 0–3 CSKA SofiaFirst League
Leading scorers: Botev Plovdiv and CSKA Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
GoalsAssists
- C. Meotti10
CSKA Sofia
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Jordão20
- I. Pittas10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Botev Plovdiv a 0% chance of the title and CSKA Sofia 39.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Botev Plovdiv v CSKA Sofia has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 27% / 26% / 47% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 24% / 26% / 50%: the biggest move is Botev Plovdiv's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Botev Plovdiv win24%▼ −3
- Draw26%=
- CSKA Sofia win50%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CSKA Sofia the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Botev Plovdiv against 1.80 for CSKA Sofia. Botev Plovdiv's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.1 for CSKA Sofia.
How the model reaches 50% for CSKA Sofia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for CSKA Sofia to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Botev Plovdiv's ratings add 10 points and CSKA Sofia's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage31%−4
- Both sides at this match's level32%+1
- Botev Plovdiv's ratings42%+10
- CSKA Sofia's ratings50%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Botev Plovdiv at home · CSKA Sofia away
League matches only, First League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Botev PlovdivCSKA Sofia
Botev Plovdiv are 5th after 14 First League matches (between 5th and 8th so far); CSKA Sofia are 1st after 14 (between 1st and 11th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Botev Plovdiv 14, CSKA Sofia 14.
Botev Plovdiv score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); CSKA Sofia have let in 3 there.
CSKA Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Botev Plovdiv have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Botev Plovdiv
- at Cherno More Varna28 Nov · First Leaguewin 39%
- at Spartak Varna5 Dec · First Leaguewin 46%
- vs Ludogorets13 Feb · First Leaguewin 24%
- vs Botev Vratsa20 Feb · First Leaguewin 52%
- at Levski Sofia27 Feb · First Leaguewin 17%
CSKA Sofia
- vs Trabzonspor26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 32%
- at Dunav Ruse29 Nov · First Leaguewin 56%
- vs Septemvri Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 74%
- at KuPS10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 46%
- vs FC Thun17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 66%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.