Regular Season - 16 · 29 November 2026, 10:30 UTC

Arda Kardzhali vs CSKA 1948 First League prediction

Arena Arda, Kardzhali

Our model says: Arda Kardzhali 1–2 CSKA 1948

The model makes it 26% Arda Kardzhali, 25% draw, 49% CSKA 1948 — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Arda Kardzhali 1.28, CSKA 1948 1.95.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Edge to CSKA 1948: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Arda Kardzhali's rating is built from 50 Bulgarian First League matches and CSKA 1948's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 685 matches.

Key facts

Arda Kardzhali are 6th on 21 points from 14 games; CSKA 1948 are 4th on 29 points from 14 games — First League.
Arda Kardzhali have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Spartak Varna.
CSKA 1948 are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Ludogorets.
Last 6 meetings: Arda Kardzhali 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 31 July 2026, ended CSKA 1948 2–1 Arda Kardzhali.

More Bulgarian First League predictions

All Bulgarian First League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Arda Kardzhali vs CSKA 1948

62%

Both teams to score

63%

Over 2.5 goals

37%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Arda Kardzhali win Draw CSKA 1948 win

1–110%
1–210%
0–28%
0–17%
2–16%
1–36%
2–26%

Scores read Arda Kardzhali first; the other scorelines share the remaining 46%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

CSKA 1948 at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Arda Kardzhali vs CSKA 1948

Arda Kardzhali

First League

L2-3away to Spartak Varna8 November 2026
W2-1Septemvri Sofia2 November 2026
D1-1Levski Sofia27 October 2026
L0-5away to Ludogorets12 October 2026
D1-1Cherno More Varna19 September 2026

CSKA 1948

First League

D2-2away to Ludogorets7 November 2026
W6-1Spartak Varna30 October 2026
W4-0Botev Plovdiv23 October 2026
L2-3CSKA Sofia11 October 2026
W2-1away to Slavia Sofia18 September 2026

What these results say

Arda Kardzhali conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Arda Kardzhali failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Arda Kardzhali scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
CSKA 1948 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Every one of these 5 matches for CSKA 1948 had three goals or more.
CSKA 1948 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	Arda Kardzhali	14	6	3	5	20	22	-2	21
4	CSKA 1948	14	9	2	3	33	16	+17	29

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Arda Kardzhali

Chance to finish in the top four · 2% today

Win 4%

Draw 1%

Defeat <1%

CSKA 1948

Chance to finish in the top four · 92% today

Win 95%

Draw 91%

Defeat 87%

From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Arda Kardzhali vs CSKA 1948

31 July 2026CSKA 1948 2–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
22 November 2025Arda Kardzhali 3–0 CSKA 1948First League
18 July 2025CSKA 1948 1–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
3 March 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–0 CSKA 1948First League
21 October 2024CSKA 1948 1–2 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
20 May 2024Arda Kardzhali 0–0 CSKA 1948First League

Leading scorers: Arda Kardzhali and CSKA 1948

Arda Kardzhali

GoalsAssists

B. Karagaren11
S. Kovachev10
A. Kabov10

CSKA 1948

GoalsAssists

Frédéric Maciel30
Elias Franco20
A. Iliev10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arda Kardzhali a 0% chance of the title and CSKA 1948 3.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Arda Kardzhali CSKA 1948

0.63 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.9

1.87 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.47

1.28 Model expected goals (this match) 1.95

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives CSKA 1948 the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Arda Kardzhali against 1.95 for CSKA 1948. Arda Kardzhali's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.47 for CSKA 1948.

Arda Kardzhali carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.61 for CSKA 1948.

How the model reaches 49% for CSKA 1948 to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for CSKA 1948 to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Arda Kardzhali's ratings add 8 points and CSKA 1948's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 49%.

Two average sides, neutral ground35%
Home advantage31%−4
Both sides at this match's level32%+1
Arda Kardzhali's ratings40%+8
CSKA 1948's ratings49%+9

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Arda KardzhaliModelCSKA 1948

Over 1.5 goals

90%

9 of 10 games

84%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

63%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

40%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Both teams score

70%

7 of 10 games

62%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Arda KardzhaliCSKA 1948

14Matches14

6W 3D 5LRecord9W 2D 3L

20 1.4 per gameGoals scored33 2.4 per game

22 1.6 per gameGoals conceded16 1.1 per game

4 of 14Clean sheets2 of 14

1 of 14Failed to score2 of 14

1 of 1Penalties scored3 of 3

28 2.0 per gameYellow cards20 1.4 per game

1Red cards2

4-2-3-1 10×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Arda Kardzhali at home · CSKA 1948 away

7Played6

4W 2D 1LRecord2W 2D 2L

12–7Goals for – against9–8

2 of 7Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, First League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Arda KardzhaliCSKA 1948

Arda Kardzhali are 6th after 14 First League matches (between 1st and 6th so far); CSKA 1948 are 4th after 14 (between 1st and 4th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All First League matches this season: Arda Kardzhali 14, CSKA 1948 14.

Arda Kardzhali scored 263225

CSKA 1948 conceded 242412

Arda Kardzhali score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); CSKA 1948 have let in 4 there.

CSKA 1948 scored 3438411

Arda Kardzhali conceded 135742

CSKA 1948 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Arda Kardzhali have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Arda Kardzhali

vs Dunav Ruse5 Dec · First Leaguewin 44%
at Lokomotiv Sofia13 Feb · First Leaguewin 39%
vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 Feb · First Leaguewin 45%
at Botev Vratsa27 Feb · First Leaguewin 38%

CSKA 1948

vs Lokomotiv Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 69%
at Cherno More Varna13 Feb · First Leaguewin 52%
vs Septemvri Sofia20 Feb · First Leaguewin 72%
at Lokomotiv Plovdiv27 Feb · First Leaguewin 52%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.