Ludogorets
vs
CSKA 1948
First League prediction
Our model says: Ludogorets 1–0 CSKA 1948
The model makes it 47% Ludogorets, 27% draw, 26% CSKA 1948 — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Ludogorets 1.62, CSKA 1948 1.05.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,305 settled matches.
Edge to Ludogorets: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 27 October 2026. Ludogorets's rating is built from 48 Bulgarian First League matches and CSKA 1948's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 669 matches.
Key facts
- Ludogorets are 3rd on 26 points from 10 games; CSKA 1948 are 4th on 25 points from 12 games — First League.
- Ludogorets have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to CSKA Sofia.
- CSKA 1948 have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Botev Plovdiv.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended CSKA 1948 1–0 Ludogorets.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ludogorets at 47% here. Across 4,980 settled matches (as of 27 October 2026), 2,310 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948
Ludogorets
First League
- L0-2away to CSKA Sofia26 October 2026
- W5-0Arda Kardzhali12 October 2026
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna30 August 2026
CSKA 1948
First League
- W4-0Botev Plovdiv23 October 2026
- L2-3CSKA Sofia11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Slavia Sofia18 September 2026
- W2-1Dunav Ruse12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Levski Sofia5 September 2026
What these results say
- Ludogorets scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ludogorets conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CSKA 1948 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- CSKA 1948 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for CSKA 1948 had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ludogorets | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 26 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 13 | +12 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ludogorets
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 14% today
CSKA 1948
Chance to finish in the top four · 89% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948
- 16 May 2026CSKA 1948 1–0 LudogoretsFirst League
- 25 April 2026Ludogorets 1–2 CSKA 1948First League
- 5 April 2026Ludogorets 3–0 CSKA 1948First League
- 27 October 2025CSKA 1948 5–4 LudogoretsFirst League
- 7 April 2025CSKA 1948 1–3 LudogoretsFirst League
- 16 December 2024CSKA 1948 2–3 LudogoretsCup
Leading scorers: Ludogorets and CSKA 1948
Ludogorets
No player in First League's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
CSKA 1948
GoalsAssists
- Frédéric Maciel10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ludogorets carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.57 for CSKA 1948. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Ludogorets and 1.05 for CSKA 1948. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ludogorets rate 0.82 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA 1948 rate 0.81 and 1.43.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ludogorets a 13.8% chance of the title and CSKA 1948 2.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,393 correct results out of 4,980 settled predictions (48%), with 496 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
How the call on Ludogorets v CSKA 1948 has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 51% / 27% / 22% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Ludogorets's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Ludogorets win47%▼ −4
- Draw27%=
- CSKA 1948 win26%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ludogorets the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Ludogorets against 1.05 for CSKA 1948. Ludogorets's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.43 for CSKA 1948.
How the model reaches 47% for Ludogorets to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Ludogorets to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Ludogorets's ratings take away 8 points and CSKA 1948's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- Ludogorets's ratings32%−8
- CSKA 1948's ratings47%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ludogorets at home · CSKA 1948 away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Ludogorets 10, CSKA 1948 12.
Ludogorets score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); CSKA 1948 have let in 3 there.
CSKA 1948 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Ludogorets have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ludogorets
- vs Dunav Ruse23 Nov · First Leaguewin 67%
- at Botev Vratsa28 Nov · First Leaguewin 55%
- at Levski Sofia3 Dec · First Leaguewin 25%
- vs Cherno More Varna5 Dec · First Leaguewin 67%
CSKA 1948
- at Botev Vratsa22 Nov · First Leaguewin 50%
- at Arda Kardzhali29 Nov · First Leaguewin 45%
- vs Lokomotiv Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 61%
- at Cherno More Varna13 Feb · First Leaguewin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.