Regular Season - 15 · 22 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

Botev Vratsa vs CSKA 1948 First League prediction

Hristo Botev Stadium, Vraca

Our model says: Botev Vratsa 0–1 CSKA 1948

The model makes it 20% Botev Vratsa, 25% draw, 55% CSKA 1948 — fair odds of 5.00, 4.00 and 1.82.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Botev Vratsa 0.93, CSKA 1948 1.89.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: CSKA 1948 are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 8 November 2026 · updated 11 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Botev Vratsa's rating is built from 51 Bulgarian First League matches and CSKA 1948's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 685 matches.

Key facts

Botev Vratsa are 13th on 10 points from 14 games; CSKA 1948 are 4th on 29 points from 14 games — First League.
Botev Vratsa have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
CSKA 1948 are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Ludogorets.
Last 6 meetings: CSKA 1948 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended CSKA 1948 2–1 Botev Vratsa.

More Bulgarian First League predictions

All Bulgarian First League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Botev Vratsa vs CSKA 1948

52%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

46%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Botev Vratsa win Draw CSKA 1948 win

1–111%
0–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–37%
0–06%
1–36%

Scores read Botev Vratsa first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

CSKA 1948 at 55%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Botev Vratsa vs CSKA 1948

Botev Vratsa

First League

L1-2Lokomotiv Plovdiv7 November 2026
L0-1away to Cherno More Varna2 November 2026
D1-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia24 October 2026
L0-1Spartak Varna10 October 2026
D2-2away to Dunav Ruse19 September 2026

CSKA 1948

First League

D2-2away to Ludogorets7 November 2026
W6-1Spartak Varna30 October 2026
W4-0Botev Plovdiv23 October 2026
L2-3CSKA Sofia11 October 2026
W2-1away to Slavia Sofia18 September 2026

What these results say

Botev Vratsa did not win any of these 5 matches.
Botev Vratsa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
CSKA 1948 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Every one of these 5 matches for CSKA 1948 had three goals or more.
CSKA 1948 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
13	Botev Vratsa	14	2	4	8	11	24	-13	10
4	CSKA 1948	14	9	2	3	33	16	+17	29

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Botev Vratsa

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 58% today

Win 41%

Draw 55%

Defeat 64%

CSKA 1948

Chance to finish in the top four · 92% today

Win 94%

Draw 90%

Defeat 87%

From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Botev Vratsa vs CSKA 1948

25 July 2026CSKA 1948 2–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
10 April 2026CSKA 1948 1–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
3 November 2025Botev Vratsa 0–0 CSKA 1948First League
28 April 2025CSKA 1948 0–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
21 February 2025CSKA 1948 1–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
30 August 2024Botev Vratsa 0–3 CSKA 1948First League

Leading scorers: Botev Vratsa and CSKA 1948

Botev Vratsa

No player in First League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

CSKA 1948

GoalsAssists

Frédéric Maciel30
Elias Franco20
A. Iliev10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Botev Vratsa a 0% chance of the title and CSKA 1948 3.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Botev Vratsa CSKA 1948

0.46 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.9

1.81 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.47

0.93 Model expected goals (this match) 1.89

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives CSKA 1948 the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Botev Vratsa against 1.89 for CSKA 1948. Botev Vratsa's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.47 for CSKA 1948.

Botev Vratsa carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.61 for CSKA 1948.

How the model reaches 55% for CSKA 1948 to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for CSKA 1948 to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Botev Vratsa's ratings add 10 points and CSKA 1948's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 55%.

Two average sides, neutral ground35%
Home advantage31%−4
Both sides at this match's level32%+1
Botev Vratsa's ratings42%+10
CSKA 1948's ratings55%+13

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Botev VratsaModelCSKA 1948

Over 1.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

78%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

54%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

31%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Both teams score

40%

4 of 10 games

52%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Botev VratsaCSKA 1948

14Matches14

2W 4D 8LRecord9W 2D 3L

11 0.8 per gameGoals scored33 2.4 per game

24 1.7 per gameGoals conceded16 1.1 per game

2 of 14Clean sheets2 of 14

6 of 14Failed to score2 of 14

–Penalties scored3 of 3

33 2.4 per gameYellow cards20 1.4 per game

1Red cards2

4-2-3-1 9×Usual shape4-2-3-1 8×

Botev Vratsa at home · CSKA 1948 away

6Played6

1W 2D 3LRecord2W 2D 2L

3–7Goals for – against9–8

2 of 6Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, First League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Botev VratsaCSKA 1948

Botev Vratsa are 13th after 14 First League matches (between 6th and 13th so far); CSKA 1948 are 4th after 14 (between 1st and 4th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All First League matches this season: Botev Vratsa 14, CSKA 1948 14.

Botev Vratsa scored 013124

CSKA 1948 conceded 242412

Botev Vratsa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); CSKA 1948 have let in 2 there.

CSKA 1948 scored 3438411

Botev Vratsa conceded 224655

CSKA 1948 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Botev Vratsa have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Botev Vratsa

vs Ludogorets28 Nov · First Leaguewin 16%
at Slavia Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 25%
vs CSKA Sofia13 Feb · First Leaguewin 16%
at Botev Plovdiv20 Feb · First Leaguewin 22%
vs Arda Kardzhali27 Feb · First Leaguewin 33%

CSKA 1948

at Arda Kardzhali29 Nov · First Leaguewin 49%
vs Lokomotiv Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 69%
at Cherno More Varna13 Feb · First Leaguewin 52%
vs Septemvri Sofia20 Feb · First Leaguewin 72%
at Lokomotiv Plovdiv27 Feb · First Leaguewin 53%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.