Slavia Sofia
vs
Arda Kardzhali
First League prediction
Our model says: Slavia Sofia 1–0 Arda Kardzhali
The model makes it 37% Slavia Sofia, 32% draw, 31% Arda Kardzhali — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Slavia Sofia 1.06, Arda Kardzhali 0.94.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%, under 2.5: 68%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Slavia Sofia's rating is built from 51 Bulgarian First League matches and Arda Kardzhali's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 685 matches.
Key facts
- Slavia Sofia are 8th on 14 points from 14 games; Arda Kardzhali are 6th on 21 points from 14 games — First League.
- Slavia Sofia have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Cherno More Varna.
- Arda Kardzhali have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Spartak Varna.
- Last 6 meetings: Arda Kardzhali 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 July 2026, ended Arda Kardzhali 1–0 Slavia Sofia.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Slavia Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
Has the model earned this number?
Slavia Sofia at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Slavia Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
Slavia Sofia
First League
- D0-0Cherno More Varna7 November 2026
- D0-0away to CSKA Sofia31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv26 October 2026
- L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv10 October 2026
- L1-2CSKA 194818 September 2026
Arda Kardzhali
First League
- L2-3away to Spartak Varna8 November 2026
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia2 November 2026
- D1-1Levski Sofia27 October 2026
- L0-5away to Ludogorets12 October 2026
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 September 2026
What these results say
- Slavia Sofia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Sofia failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Slavia Sofia had two goals or fewer.
- Arda Kardzhali conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 14 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Slavia Sofia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Slavia Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
- 24 July 2026Arda Kardzhali 1–0 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 14 February 2026Arda Kardzhali 2–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 25 August 2025Slavia Sofia 2–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 22 February 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 30 August 2024Slavia Sofia 1–1 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 23 May 2024Arda Kardzhali 3–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
Leading scorers: Slavia Sofia and Arda Kardzhali
Slavia Sofia
No player in First League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Arda Kardzhali
GoalsAssists
- B. Karagaren11
- S. Kovachev10
- A. Kabov10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Arda Kardzhali (sixth, with Slavia Sofia eighth), while our numbers lean to Slavia Sofia. Slavia Sofia rate 0.41 in attack and 1.28 in defence, Arda Kardzhali 0.63 and 1.87 (lower is better in defence), so Slavia Sofia have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 7-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slavia Sofia the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Slavia Sofia against 0.94 for Arda Kardzhali. Slavia Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.87 for Arda Kardzhali.
How the model reaches 37% for Slavia Sofia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Slavia Sofia to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Slavia Sofia's ratings take away 3 points and Arda Kardzhali's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- Both sides at this match's level38%−2
- Slavia Sofia's ratings35%−3
- Arda Kardzhali's ratings37%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Slavia Sofia at home · Arda Kardzhali away
League matches only, First League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Slavia SofiaArda Kardzhali
Slavia Sofia are 8th after 14 First League matches (between 6th and 12th so far); Arda Kardzhali are 6th after 14 (between 1st and 6th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Slavia Sofia 14, Arda Kardzhali 14.
Slavia Sofia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Arda Kardzhali have let in 7 there.
Arda Kardzhali score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Slavia Sofia have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Slavia Sofia
- at Lokomotiv Sofia27 Nov · First Leaguewin 35%
- vs Botev Vratsa5 Dec · First Leaguewin 41%
- at Levski Sofia13 Feb · First Leaguewin 15%
- vs Ludogorets20 Feb · First Leaguewin 20%
- at Septemvri Sofia27 Feb · First Leaguewin 39%
Arda Kardzhali
- vs CSKA 194829 Nov · First Leaguewin 26%
- vs Dunav Ruse5 Dec · First Leaguewin 44%
- at Lokomotiv Sofia13 Feb · First Leaguewin 39%
- vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 Feb · First Leaguewin 45%
- at Botev Vratsa27 Feb · First Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.