Slavia Sofia
vs
Cherno More Varna
First League prediction
Our model says: Slavia Sofia 1–0 Cherno More Varna
The model makes it 43% Slavia Sofia, 31% draw, 26% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 2.33, 3.23 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Slavia Sofia 1.24, Cherno More Varna 0.86.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,305 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 27 October 2026. Slavia Sofia's rating is built from 49 Bulgarian First League matches and Cherno More Varna's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 669 matches.
Key facts
- Slavia Sofia are 8th on 12 points from 12 games; Cherno More Varna are bottom on 6 points from 11 games — First League.
- Slavia Sofia are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
- Cherno More Varna have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Levski Sofia.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 April 2026, ended Cherno More Varna 1–3 Slavia Sofia.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slavia Sofia at 43% here. Across 4,980 settled matches (as of 27 October 2026), 2,310 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
Slavia Sofia
First League
- D0-0away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv26 October 2026
- L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv10 October 2026
- L1-2CSKA 194818 September 2026
- D0-0Spartak Varna13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Dunav Ruse7 September 2026
Cherno More Varna
First League
- L0-2Levski Sofia11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Arda Kardzhali19 September 2026
- D2-2Lokomotiv Sofia11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv6 September 2026
- L1-3away to CSKA Sofia30 August 2026
What these results say
- Slavia Sofia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Slavia Sofia had two goals or fewer.
- Cherno More Varna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cherno More Varna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Slavia Sofia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
Cherno More Varna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 54% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
- 5 April 2026Cherno More Varna 1–3 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 25 October 2025Slavia Sofia 0–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 29 March 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 14 December 2024Cherno More Varna 1–0 Slavia SofiaCup
- 4 October 2024Slavia Sofia 1–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 9 December 2023Cherno More Varna 3–0 Slavia SofiaFirst League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Slavia Sofia carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.18 for Cherno More Varna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Slavia Sofia and 0.86 for Cherno More Varna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slavia Sofia rate 0.45 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cherno More Varna rate 0.52 and 1.99.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,393 correct results out of 4,980 settled predictions (48%), with 496 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slavia Sofia the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Slavia Sofia against 0.86 for Cherno More Varna. Slavia Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.99 for Cherno More Varna.
How the model reaches 43% for Slavia Sofia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Slavia Sofia to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Slavia Sofia's ratings take away 24 points and Cherno More Varna's ratings add 27 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- Slavia Sofia's ratings16%−24
- Cherno More Varna's ratings43%+27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Slavia Sofia at home · Cherno More Varna away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Slavia Sofia 11, Cherno More Varna 11.
Slavia Sofia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Cherno More Varna have let in 4 there.
Cherno More Varna score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Slavia Sofia have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Slavia Sofia
- vs Arda Kardzhali21 Nov · First Leaguewin 37%
- at Lokomotiv Sofia27 Nov · First Leaguewin 32%
- vs Botev Vratsa5 Dec · First Leaguewin 40%
- at Levski Sofia13 Feb · First Leaguewin 12%
Cherno More Varna
- at Spartak Varna21 Nov · First Leaguewin 34%
- vs Botev Plovdiv28 Nov · First Leaguewin 33%
- at Ludogorets5 Dec · First Leaguewin 12%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.