Spartak Varna
vs
Arda Kardzhali
First League prediction
Our model says: Spartak Varna 0–1 Arda Kardzhali
The model makes it 31% Spartak Varna, 29% draw, 40% Arda Kardzhali — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Spartak Varna 1.14, Arda Kardzhali 1.38.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,305 settled matches.
Edge to Arda Kardzhali: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 27 October 2026. Spartak Varna's rating is built from 49 Bulgarian First League matches and Arda Kardzhali's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 669 matches.
Key facts
- Spartak Varna are 7th on 13 points from 12 games; Arda Kardzhali are 6th on 17 points from 11 games — First League.
- Spartak Varna have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Dunav Ruse.
- Arda Kardzhali are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Ludogorets.
- Last 6 meetings: Arda Kardzhali 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 February 2026, ended Arda Kardzhali 1–0 Spartak Varna.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arda Kardzhali at 40% here. Across 4,980 settled matches (as of 27 October 2026), 2,310 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali
Spartak Varna
First League
- L0-2away to Dunav Ruse24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Botev Vratsa10 October 2026
- L0-1Lokomotiv Sofia20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia13 September 2026
- D1-1CSKA Sofia5 September 2026
Arda Kardzhali
First League
- L0-5away to Ludogorets12 October 2026
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 September 2026
- L1-4away to CSKA Sofia12 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Plovdiv4 September 2026
- W2-0Botev Vratsa31 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Spartak Varna had two goals or fewer.
- Spartak Varna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 13 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Spartak Varna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 31% today
Arda Kardzhali
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali
- 27 February 2026Arda Kardzhali 1–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 13 September 2025Spartak Varna 3–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 7 February 2025Arda Kardzhali 2–2 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 16 August 2024Spartak Varna 1–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 6 March 2023Arda Kardzhali 2–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 20 August 2022Spartak Varna 1–3 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
The two sides
Spartak Varna carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.31 for Arda Kardzhali. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Spartak Varna and 1.38 for Arda Kardzhali. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Spartak Varna rate 0.46 in attack and 1.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arda Kardzhali rate 0.61 and 1.80.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,393 correct results out of 4,980 settled predictions (48%), with 496 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arda Kardzhali the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Spartak Varna against 1.38 for Arda Kardzhali. Spartak Varna's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.8 for Arda Kardzhali.
How the model reaches 40% for Arda Kardzhali to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Arda Kardzhali to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Spartak Varna's ratings add 37 points and Arda Kardzhali's ratings take away 28 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage31%−4
- Spartak Varna's ratings68%+37
- Arda Kardzhali's ratings40%−28
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Spartak Varna at home · Arda Kardzhali away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Spartak Varna 12, Arda Kardzhali 11.
Arda Kardzhali score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Spartak Varna have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Spartak Varna
- vs Cherno More Varna21 Nov · First Leaguewin 37%
- at Lokomotiv Plovdiv28 Nov · First Leaguewin 27%
- vs Botev Plovdiv5 Dec · First Leaguewin 30%
- at Septemvri Sofia13 Feb · First Leaguewin 34%
Arda Kardzhali
- at Slavia Sofia21 Nov · First Leaguewin 32%
- vs CSKA 194829 Nov · First Leaguewin 28%
- vs Dunav Ruse5 Dec · First Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.