Levski Sofia
vs
Lokomotiv Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: Levski Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv Sofia
The model makes it 71% Levski Sofia, 18% draw, 11% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 1.41, 5.56 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Levski Sofia 2.56, Lokomotiv Sofia 0.71.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Levski Sofia are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Levski Sofia's rating is built from 49 Bulgarian First League matches and Lokomotiv Sofia's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 685 matches.
Key facts
- Levski Sofia are 2nd on 32 points from 13 games; Lokomotiv Sofia are bottom on 9 points from 14 games — First League.
- Levski Sofia have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to CSKA Sofia.
- Lokomotiv Sofia are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Septemvri Sofia.
- Last 6 meetings: Levski Sofia 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 July 2026, ended Lokomotiv Sofia 1–2 Levski Sofia.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
Levski Sofia at 71%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Levski Sofia
First League
- L0-3CSKA Sofia8 November 2026
- W1-0away to Dunav Ruse31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Arda Kardzhali27 October 2026
- W2-0away to Cherno More Varna11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Botev Vratsa13 September 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia
First League
- L0-1away to Septemvri Sofia6 November 2026
- L2-5Botev Plovdiv30 October 2026
- D1-1Botev Vratsa24 October 2026
- D1-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Spartak Varna20 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Levski Sofia had two goals or fewer.
- Lokomotiv Sofia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 8 | +17 | 32 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Levski Sofia
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 40% today
Lokomotiv Sofia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 62% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia
- 25 July 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 1–2 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 1 March 2026Levski Sofia 4–3 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 14 September 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 1–2 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 23 November 2024Levski Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 20 July 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 1–6 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 27 November 2023Lokomotiv Sofia 2–2 Levski SofiaFirst League
Leading scorers: Levski Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia
Levski Sofia
No player in First League's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.
Lokomotiv Sofia
GoalsAssists
- S. Delev11
- D. Kostadinov10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Levski Sofia a 40% chance of the title and Lokomotiv Sofia 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Levski Sofia v Lokomotiv Sofia has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 74% / 17% / 9% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 71% / 18% / 11%: the biggest move is Levski Sofia's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Levski Sofia win71%▼ −3
- Draw18%▲ +1
- Lokomotiv Sofia win11%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Levski Sofia against 0.71 for Lokomotiv Sofia. Levski Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2.26 for Lokomotiv Sofia.
How the model reaches 71% for Levski Sofia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Levski Sofia to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Levski Sofia's ratings add 14 points and Lokomotiv Sofia's ratings add 17 points, which lands on the published 71%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- Levski Sofia's ratings54%+14
- Lokomotiv Sofia's ratings71%+17
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Levski Sofia at home · Lokomotiv Sofia away
League matches only, First League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Levski SofiaLokomotiv Sofia
Levski Sofia are 2nd after 13 First League matches (between 1st and 2nd so far); Lokomotiv Sofia are 14th after 14 (between 8th and 14th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Levski Sofia 13, Lokomotiv Sofia 14.
Levski Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Lokomotiv Sofia have let in 7 there.
Lokomotiv Sofia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Levski Sofia have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Levski Sofia
- at Marseille26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 18%
- at Septemvri Sofia29 Nov · First Leaguewin 65%
- vs Ludogorets3 Dec · First Leaguewin 40%
- at Lokomotiv Plovdiv5 Dec · First Leaguewin 55%
- vs Lillestrom10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
Lokomotiv Sofia
- vs Slavia Sofia27 Nov · First Leaguewin 34%
- at CSKA 19485 Dec · First Leaguewin 13%
- vs Arda Kardzhali13 Feb · First Leaguewin 35%
- at CSKA Sofia20 Feb · First Leaguewin 11%
- vs Dunav Ruse27 Feb · First Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.