Septemvri Sofia
vs
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
First League prediction
Our model says: Septemvri Sofia 0–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
The model makes it 32% Septemvri Sofia, 33% draw, 35% Lokomotiv Plovdiv — fair odds of 3.13, 3.03 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Septemvri Sofia 0.95, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.00.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Septemvri Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Septemvri Sofia's rating is built from 52 Bulgarian First League matches and Lokomotiv Plovdiv's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 685 matches.
Key facts
- Septemvri Sofia are 12th on 11 points from 14 games; Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th on 12 points from 14 games — First League.
- Septemvri Sofia have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Lokomotiv Sofia.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Botev Vratsa.
- Last 6 meetings: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2–1 Septemvri Sofia.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Has the model earned this number?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 35%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia
First League
- W1-0Lokomotiv Sofia6 November 2026
- L1-2away to Arda Kardzhali2 November 2026
- L0-2away to Cherno More Varna27 October 2026
- L2-3Dunav Ruse11 October 2026
- L0-3Botev Plovdiv19 September 2026
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
First League
- W2-1away to Botev Vratsa7 November 2026
- L0-3Ludogorets31 October 2026
- D0-0Slavia Sofia26 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia10 October 2026
- D1-1CSKA Sofia20 September 2026
What these results say
- Septemvri Sofia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Septemvri Sofia | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 11 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Septemvri Sofia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 68% today
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 34% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 26 July 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 13 March 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 3 October 2025Septemvri Sofia 2–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 28 April 2025Septemvri Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 16 February 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 26 August 2024Septemvri Sofia 2–3 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
Leading scorers: Septemvri Sofia and Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia
GoalsAssists
- André Filipe Rio Liberal11
- F. Herard10
- A. Dzhamov10
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
No player in First League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lokomotiv Plovdiv the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Septemvri Sofia against 1.00 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Septemvri Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.57 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
How the model reaches 35% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Septemvri Sofia's ratings add 3 points and Lokomotiv Plovdiv's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage31%−4
- Both sides at this match's level30%−1
- Septemvri Sofia's ratings33%+3
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv's ratings35%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Septemvri Sofia at home · Lokomotiv Plovdiv away
League matches only, First League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Septemvri SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia are 12th after 14 First League matches (between 6th and 14th so far); Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 11th after 14 (between 6th and 14th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Septemvri Sofia 14, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 14.
Septemvri Sofia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Lokomotiv Plovdiv have let in 1 there.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Septemvri Sofia have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Septemvri Sofia
- vs Levski Sofia29 Nov · First Leaguewin 12%
- at CSKA Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 8%
- vs Spartak Varna13 Feb · First Leaguewin 37%
- at CSKA 194820 Feb · First Leaguewin 10%
- vs Slavia Sofia27 Feb · First Leaguewin 27%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- vs Spartak Varna28 Nov · First Leaguewin 41%
- vs Levski Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 16%
- at Dunav Ruse13 Feb · First Leaguewin 27%
- at Arda Kardzhali20 Feb · First Leaguewin 25%
- vs CSKA 194827 Feb · First Leaguewin 20%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.