Regular Season - 15 · 23 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Ludogorets vs Dunav Ruse First League prediction

Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad

Our model says: Ludogorets 2–0 Dunav Ruse

The model makes it 66% Ludogorets, 21% draw, 13% Dunav Ruse — fair odds of 1.52, 4.76 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Ludogorets 2.27, Dunav Ruse 0.76.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

One-sided: Ludogorets are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 9 November 2026 · updated 11 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Ludogorets's rating is built from 50 Bulgarian First League matches and Dunav Ruse's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 685 matches.

Key facts

Ludogorets are 3rd on 30 points from 13 games; Dunav Ruse are 10th on 12 points from 14 games — First League.
Ludogorets have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to CSKA 1948.
Dunav Ruse have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Botev Plovdiv.
Last 6 meetings: Ludogorets 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 July 2026, ended Dunav Ruse 0–2 Ludogorets.

More Bulgarian First League predictions

All Bulgarian First League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Ludogorets vs Dunav Ruse

48%

Both teams to score

58%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Ludogorets win Draw Dunav Ruse win

2–012%
1–011%
2–19%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%
4–05%

Scores read Ludogorets first; the other scorelines share the remaining 37%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Ludogorets at 66%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Ludogorets vs Dunav Ruse

Ludogorets

First League

D2-2CSKA 19487 November 2026
W3-0away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv31 October 2026
L0-2away to CSKA Sofia26 October 2026
W5-0Arda Kardzhali12 October 2026
W2-1Septemvri Sofia14 September 2026

Dunav Ruse

First League

D1-1away to Botev Plovdiv6 November 2026
L0-1Levski Sofia31 October 2026
W2-0Spartak Varna24 October 2026
W3-2away to Septemvri Sofia11 October 2026
D2-2Botev Vratsa19 September 2026

What these results say

Ludogorets scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Ludogorets had three goals or more.
Dunav Ruse scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Dunav Ruse conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	Ludogorets	13	9	3	1	26	11	+15	30
10	Dunav Ruse	14	3	3	8	16	23	-7	12

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Ludogorets

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 17% today

Win 19%

Draw 12%

Defeat 8%

Dunav Ruse

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today

Win 9%

Draw 20%

Defeat 24%

From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Ludogorets vs Dunav Ruse

27 July 2026Dunav Ruse 0–2 LudogoretsFirst League
29 May 2020Ludogorets 4–0 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs
8 March 2020Ludogorets 5–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
29 September 2019Dunav Ruse 0–1 LudogoretsFirst League
16 December 2018Dunav Ruse 0–2 LudogoretsFirst League
2 September 2018Ludogorets 3–1 Dunav RuseFirst League

Leading scorers: Ludogorets and Dunav Ruse

Ludogorets

GoalsAssists

B. Tekpetey20
Rwan Cruz12

Dunav Ruse

GoalsAssists

I. Budinov11
Andre Alves10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ludogorets a 16.7% chance of the title and Dunav Ruse 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Ludogorets Dunav Ruse

0.85 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.58

1.13 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.93

2.27 Model expected goals (this match) 0.76

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ludogorets the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Ludogorets against 0.76 for Dunav Ruse. Ludogorets's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.93 for Dunav Ruse.

Ludogorets carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.25 for Dunav Ruse.

How the model reaches 66% for Ludogorets to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Ludogorets to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Ludogorets's ratings add 12 points and Dunav Ruse's ratings add 14 points, which lands on the published 66%.

Two average sides, neutral ground36%
Home advantage40%+4
Ludogorets's ratings52%+12
Dunav Ruse's ratings66%+14

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

LudogoretsModelDunav Ruse

Over 1.5 goals

100%

10 of 10 games

81%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

58%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

36%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

48%

model, this match

70%

7 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

LudogoretsDunav Ruse

13Matches14

9W 3D 1LRecord3W 3D 8L

26 2.0 per gameGoals scored16 1.1 per game

11 0.8 per gameGoals conceded23 1.6 per game

5 of 13Clean sheets1 of 14

1 of 13Failed to score4 of 14

–Penalties scored2 of 2

24 1.8 per gameYellow cards30 2.1 per game

2Red cards2

4-2-3-1 8×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

Ludogorets at home · Dunav Ruse away

7Played7

5W 2D 0LRecord2W 1D 4L

15–5Goals for – against10–13

3 of 7Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, First League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

LudogoretsDunav Ruse

Ludogorets are 3rd after 13 First League matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Dunav Ruse are 10th after 14 (between 9th and 14th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All First League matches this season: Ludogorets 13, Dunav Ruse 14.

Ludogorets scored 246723

Dunav Ruse conceded 342436

Ludogorets score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Dunav Ruse have let in 4 there.

Dunav Ruse scored 212155

Ludogorets conceded 131025

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Ludogorets

at Botev Vratsa28 Nov · First Leaguewin 58%
at Levski Sofia3 Dec · First Leaguewin 30%
vs Cherno More Varna5 Dec · First Leaguewin 65%
at Botev Plovdiv13 Feb · First Leaguewin 50%
at Slavia Sofia20 Feb · First Leaguewin 48%

Dunav Ruse

vs CSKA Sofia29 Nov · First Leaguewin 19%
at Arda Kardzhali5 Dec · First Leaguewin 29%
vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv13 Feb · First Leaguewin 42%
vs Cherno More Varna20 Feb · First Leaguewin 41%
at Lokomotiv Sofia27 Feb · First Leaguewin 36%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.