Spartak Varna
vs
Cherno More Varna
First League prediction
Our model says: Spartak Varna 0–1 Cherno More Varna
The model makes it 35% Spartak Varna, 29% draw, 36% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Spartak Varna 1.25, Cherno More Varna 1.28.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Spartak Varna and Cherno More Varna are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Spartak Varna's rating is built from 51 Bulgarian First League matches and Cherno More Varna's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 685 matches.
Key facts
- Spartak Varna are 7th on 16 points from 14 games; Cherno More Varna are 9th on 13 points from 14 games — First League.
- Spartak Varna have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Arda Kardzhali.
- Cherno More Varna are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Slavia Sofia.
- Last 6 meetings: Cherno More Varna 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended Cherno More Varna 0–3 Spartak Varna.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna
Has the model earned this number?
Cherno More Varna at 36%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna
Spartak Varna
First League
- W3-2Arda Kardzhali8 November 2026
- L1-6away to CSKA 194830 October 2026
- L0-2away to Dunav Ruse24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Botev Vratsa10 October 2026
- L0-1Lokomotiv Sofia20 September 2026
Cherno More Varna
First League
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia7 November 2026
- W1-0Botev Vratsa2 November 2026
- W2-0Septemvri Sofia27 October 2026
- L0-2Levski Sofia11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Arda Kardzhali19 September 2026
What these results say
- Spartak Varna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Cherno More Varna had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Spartak Varna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today
Cherno More Varna
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs Cherno More Varna
- 26 July 2026Cherno More Varna 0–3 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 7 February 2026Cherno More Varna 0–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 16 August 2025Spartak Varna 1–3 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 8 March 2025Cherno More Varna 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 22 September 2024Spartak Varna 0–2 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 7 May 2023Cherno More Varna 3–2 Spartak VarnaFirst League
Leading scorers: Spartak Varna and Cherno More Varna
Spartak Varna
GoalsAssists
- Georg Stojanovski11
- J. Tshitoku10
Cherno More Varna
No player in First League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Spartak Varna (seventh, with Cherno More Varna ninth), while our numbers lean to Cherno More Varna. Cherno More Varna rate 0.50 in attack and 1.77 in defence, Spartak Varna 0.51 and 2.21 (lower is better in defence), so Cherno More Varna have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show.
How the call on Spartak Varna v Cherno More Varna has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is Spartak Varna's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Spartak Varna win35%▲ +2
- Draw29%=
- Cherno More Varna win36%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cherno More Varna the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Spartak Varna against 1.28 for Cherno More Varna. Spartak Varna's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.77 for Cherno More Varna.
How the model reaches 36% for Cherno More Varna to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Cherno More Varna to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Spartak Varna's ratings add 3 points and Cherno More Varna's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage31%−4
- Spartak Varna's ratings34%+3
- Cherno More Varna's ratings36%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Spartak Varna at home · Cherno More Varna away
League matches only, First League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Spartak VarnaCherno More Varna
Spartak Varna are 7th after 14 First League matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); Cherno More Varna are 9th after 14 (between 7th and 14th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Spartak Varna 14, Cherno More Varna 14.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Spartak Varna
- at Lokomotiv Plovdiv28 Nov · First Leaguewin 28%
- vs Botev Plovdiv5 Dec · First Leaguewin 28%
- at Septemvri Sofia13 Feb · First Leaguewin 35%
- vs Levski Sofia20 Feb · First Leaguewin 14%
- at Ludogorets27 Feb · First Leaguewin 10%
Cherno More Varna
- vs Botev Plovdiv28 Nov · First Leaguewin 33%
- at Ludogorets5 Dec · First Leaguewin 13%
- vs CSKA 194813 Feb · First Leaguewin 22%
- at Dunav Ruse20 Feb · First Leaguewin 30%
- vs CSKA Sofia27 Feb · First Leaguewin 18%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.