Septemvri Sofia
vs
Lokomotiv Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: Septemvri Sofia 1–2 Lokomotiv Sofia
The model makes it 32% Septemvri Sofia, 27% draw, 41% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Septemvri Sofia 1.36, Lokomotiv Sofia 1.60.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,305 settled matches.
Edge to Lokomotiv Sofia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 27 October 2026. Septemvri Sofia's rating is built from 49 Bulgarian First League matches and Lokomotiv Sofia's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 669 matches.
Key facts
- Septemvri Sofia are 13th on 8 points from 11 games; Lokomotiv Sofia are 11th on 9 points from 12 games — First League.
- Septemvri Sofia have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Dunav Ruse.
- Lokomotiv Sofia are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Botev Vratsa.
- Last 6 meetings: Lokomotiv Sofia 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 27 April 2026, ended Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Septemvri Sofia.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lokomotiv Sofia at 41% here. Across 4,980 settled matches (as of 27 October 2026), 2,310 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
First League
- L2-3Dunav Ruse11 October 2026
- L0-3Botev Plovdiv19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ludogorets14 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Vratsa4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia28 August 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia
First League
- D1-1Botev Vratsa24 October 2026
- D1-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Spartak Varna20 September 2026
- L0-2CSKA Sofia16 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cherno More Varna11 September 2026
What these results say
- Septemvri Sofia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Septemvri Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Septemvri Sofia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 71% today
Lokomotiv Sofia
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 32% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia
- 27 April 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 17 March 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 3–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 29 August 2025Septemvri Sofia 1–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 20 May 2025Septemvri Sofia 0–2 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 8 December 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 1–2 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 12 August 2024Septemvri Sofia 0–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
The two sides
Septemvri Sofia carry a model rating of 6.07 against 6.25 for Lokomotiv Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.60 for Lokomotiv Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Septemvri Sofia rate 0.47 in attack and 2.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lokomotiv Sofia rate 0.62 and 2.10.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,393 correct results out of 4,980 settled predictions (48%), with 496 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lokomotiv Sofia the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Septemvri Sofia against 1.60 for Lokomotiv Sofia. Septemvri Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/2.1 for Lokomotiv Sofia.
How the model reaches 41% for Lokomotiv Sofia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Lokomotiv Sofia to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Septemvri Sofia's ratings add 42 points and Lokomotiv Sofia's ratings take away 32 points, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage31%−4
- Septemvri Sofia's ratings73%+42
- Lokomotiv Sofia's ratings41%−32
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Septemvri Sofia at home · Lokomotiv Sofia away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Septemvri Sofia 11, Lokomotiv Sofia 12.
Septemvri Sofia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Lokomotiv Sofia have let in 2 there.
Lokomotiv Sofia score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Septemvri Sofia have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Septemvri Sofia
- vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv20 Nov · First Leaguewin 33%
- vs Levski Sofia29 Nov · First Leaguewin 10%
- at CSKA Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 9%
Lokomotiv Sofia
- at Levski Sofia22 Nov · First Leaguewin 10%
- vs Slavia Sofia27 Nov · First Leaguewin 38%
- at CSKA 19485 Dec · First Leaguewin 17%
- vs Arda Kardzhali13 Feb · First Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.