Botev Plovdiv
vs
Dunav Ruse
First League prediction
Our model says: Botev Plovdiv 2–1 Dunav Ruse
The model makes it 48% Botev Plovdiv, 25% draw, 27% Dunav Ruse — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Botev Plovdiv 1.92, Dunav Ruse 1.32.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,305 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 27 October 2026. Botev Plovdiv's rating is built from 47 Bulgarian First League matches and Dunav Ruse's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 669 matches.
Key facts
- Botev Plovdiv are 5th on 19 points from 12 games; Dunav Ruse are 9th on 11 points from 12 games — First League.
- Botev Plovdiv have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to CSKA 1948.
- Dunav Ruse are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Spartak Varna.
- Last 5 meetings: Botev Plovdiv 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 July 2020, ended Botev Plovdiv 3–1 Dunav Ruse.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botev Plovdiv at 48% here. Across 4,980 settled matches (as of 27 October 2026), 2,310 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse
Botev Plovdiv
First League
- L0-4away to CSKA 194823 October 2026
- W1-0Slavia Sofia10 October 2026
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia19 September 2026
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Arda Kardzhali4 September 2026
Dunav Ruse
First League
- W2-0Spartak Varna24 October 2026
- W3-2away to Septemvri Sofia11 October 2026
- D2-2Botev Vratsa19 September 2026
- L1-2away to CSKA 194812 September 2026
- L0-1Slavia Sofia7 September 2026
What these results say
- Botev Plovdiv won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botev Plovdiv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dunav Ruse scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dunav Ruse conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Dunav Ruse | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Botev Plovdiv
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
Dunav Ruse
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse
- 3 July 2020Botev Plovdiv 3–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 6 November 2019Dunav Ruse 1–2 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 21 July 2019Botev Plovdiv 3–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
- 2 March 2019Dunav Ruse 1–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 6 October 2018Botev Plovdiv 4–1 Dunav RuseFirst League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Botev Plovdiv carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.25 for Dunav Ruse. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 1.32 for Dunav Ruse. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botev Plovdiv rate 0.66 in attack and 1.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dunav Ruse rate 0.62 and 2.11.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,393 correct results out of 4,980 settled predictions (48%), with 496 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
How the call on Botev Plovdiv v Dunav Ruse has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 54% / 24% / 22% (home / draw / away). After 5 updates it reads 48% / 25% / 27%: the biggest move is Botev Plovdiv's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Botev Plovdiv win48%▼ −6
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Dunav Ruse win27%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botev Plovdiv the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Botev Plovdiv against 1.32 for Dunav Ruse. Botev Plovdiv's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/2.11 for Dunav Ruse.
How the model reaches 48% for Botev Plovdiv to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Botev Plovdiv to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Botev Plovdiv's ratings take away 23 points and Dunav Ruse's ratings add 31 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- Botev Plovdiv's ratings17%−23
- Dunav Ruse's ratings48%+31
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Botev Plovdiv at home · Dunav Ruse away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Botev Plovdiv 12, Dunav Ruse 12.
Botev Plovdiv score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Dunav Ruse have let in 2 there.
Dunav Ruse score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Botev Plovdiv have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Botev Plovdiv
- vs CSKA Sofia22 Nov · First Leaguewin 24%
- at Cherno More Varna28 Nov · First Leaguewin 40%
- at Spartak Varna5 Dec · First Leaguewin 42%
- vs Ludogorets13 Feb · First Leaguewin 23%
Dunav Ruse
- at Ludogorets23 Nov · First Leaguewin 13%
- vs CSKA Sofia29 Nov · First Leaguewin 20%
- at Arda Kardzhali5 Dec · First Leaguewin 28%
- vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv13 Feb · First Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.