Regular Season - 16 · 27 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Lokomotiv Sofia vs Slavia Sofia First League prediction

Stadion Lokomotiv, Sofia

Our model says: Lokomotiv Sofia 0–1 Slavia Sofia

The model makes it 34% Lokomotiv Sofia, 31% draw, 35% Slavia Sofia — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Lokomotiv Sofia 1.04, Slavia Sofia 1.07.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.

A tight game: Lokomotiv Sofia and Slavia Sofia are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published 13 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Lokomotiv Sofia's rating is built from 51 Bulgarian First League matches and Slavia Sofia's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 685 matches.

Key facts

Lokomotiv Sofia are bottom on 9 points from 14 games; Slavia Sofia are 8th on 14 points from 14 games — First League.
Lokomotiv Sofia are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Septemvri Sofia.
Slavia Sofia have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Cherno More Varna.
Last 6 meetings: Lokomotiv Sofia 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 31 July 2026, ended Slavia Sofia 1–1 Lokomotiv Sofia.

More Bulgarian First League predictions

All Bulgarian First League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Slavia Sofia

43%

Both teams to score

36%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Lokomotiv Sofia win Draw Slavia Sofia win

1–114%
0–013%
0–112%
1–012%
1–27%
2–17%
0–27%

Scores read Lokomotiv Sofia first; the other scorelines share the remaining 28%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Slavia Sofia at 35%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Lokomotiv Sofia vs Slavia Sofia

Lokomotiv Sofia

First League

L0-1away to Septemvri Sofia6 November 2026
L2-5Botev Plovdiv30 October 2026
D1-1Botev Vratsa24 October 2026
D1-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv10 October 2026
W1-0away to Spartak Varna20 September 2026

Slavia Sofia

First League

D0-0Cherno More Varna7 November 2026
D0-0away to CSKA Sofia31 October 2026
D0-0away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv26 October 2026
L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv10 October 2026
L1-2CSKA 194818 September 2026

What these results say

Lokomotiv Sofia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Lokomotiv Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Lokomotiv Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Slavia Sofia did not win any of these 5 matches.
Slavia Sofia failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Slavia Sofia had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
14	Lokomotiv Sofia	14	1	6	7	15	26	-11	9
8	Slavia Sofia	14	2	8	4	9	9	0	14

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Slavia Sofia

31 July 2026Slavia Sofia 1–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
18 May 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 2–0 Slavia SofiaFirst League
13 March 2026Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
3 October 2025Slavia Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
10 May 2025Slavia Sofia 0–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
6 April 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 3–2 Slavia SofiaFirst League

Leading scorers: Lokomotiv Sofia and Slavia Sofia

Lokomotiv Sofia

GoalsAssists

S. Delev11
D. Kostadinov10

Slavia Sofia

No player in First League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Lokomotiv Sofia Slavia Sofia

0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.41

2.26 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.28

1.04 Model expected goals (this match) 1.07

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Slavia Sofia the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Lokomotiv Sofia against 1.07 for Slavia Sofia. Lokomotiv Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.28 for Slavia Sofia.

How the model reaches 35% for Slavia Sofia to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Slavia Sofia to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Lokomotiv Sofia's ratings add 3 points and Slavia Sofia's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 35%.

Two average sides, neutral ground35%
Home advantage31%−4
Lokomotiv Sofia's ratings34%+3
Slavia Sofia's ratings35%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Lokomotiv SofiaModelSlavia Sofia

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

63%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

36%

model, this match

20%

2 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

16%

model, this match

0 of 10 games

Both teams score

70%

7 of 10 games

43%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Lokomotiv SofiaSlavia Sofia

14Matches14

1W 6D 7LRecord2W 8D 4L

15 1.1 per gameGoals scored9 0.6 per game

26 1.9 per gameGoals conceded9 0.6 per game

1 of 14Clean sheets7 of 14

2 of 14Failed to score7 of 14

1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 2

43 3.1 per gameYellow cards40 2.9 per game

1Red cards1

4-2-3-1 9×Usual shape4-2-3-1 14×

Lokomotiv Sofia at home · Slavia Sofia away

7Played7

0W 2D 5LRecord2W 3D 2L

7–16Goals for – against5–3

0 of 7Clean sheets4 of 7

League matches only, First League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Lokomotiv SofiaSlavia Sofia

Lokomotiv Sofia are 14th after 14 First League matches (between 8th and 14th so far); Slavia Sofia are 8th after 14 (between 6th and 12th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All First League matches this season: Lokomotiv Sofia 14, Slavia Sofia 14.

Lokomotiv Sofia scored 012542

Slavia Sofia conceded 002222

Lokomotiv Sofia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Slavia Sofia have let in 2 there.

Slavia Sofia scored 102412

Lokomotiv Sofia conceded 408447

Slavia Sofia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Lokomotiv Sofia have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Lokomotiv Sofia

at CSKA 19485 Dec · First Leaguewin 13%
vs Arda Kardzhali13 Feb · First Leaguewin 35%
at CSKA Sofia20 Feb · First Leaguewin 11%
vs Dunav Ruse27 Feb · First Leaguewin 38%

Slavia Sofia

vs Botev Vratsa5 Dec · First Leaguewin 41%
at Levski Sofia13 Feb · First Leaguewin 15%
vs Ludogorets20 Feb · First Leaguewin 20%
at Septemvri Sofia27 Feb · First Leaguewin 39%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.