Botev Vratsa
vs
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
First League prediction
Our model says: Botev Vratsa 1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
The model makes it 37% Botev Vratsa, 34% draw, 29% Lokomotiv Plovdiv — fair odds of 2.70, 2.94 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Botev Vratsa 0.98, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.79.
Both teams to score: 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 26%, under 2.5: 74%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 1,047 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 27 October 2026. Botev Vratsa's rating is built from 49 Bulgarian First League matches and Lokomotiv Plovdiv's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 669 matches.
Key facts
- Botev Vratsa are 10th on 10 points from 12 games; Lokomotiv Plovdiv are 12th on 9 points from 12 games — First League.
- Botev Vratsa are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Lokomotiv Sofia.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Slavia Sofia.
- Last 6 meetings: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended Botev Vratsa 1–2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
More Bulgarian First League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botev Vratsa at 37% here. Across 4,980 settled matches (as of 27 October 2026), 3,818 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Vratsa
First League
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia24 October 2026
- L0-1Spartak Varna10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Dunav Ruse19 September 2026
- D0-0Levski Sofia13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Septemvri Sofia4 September 2026
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
First League
- D0-0Slavia Sofia26 October 2026
- D1-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia10 October 2026
- D1-1CSKA Sofia20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Botev Plovdiv13 September 2026
- W1-0Cherno More Varna6 September 2026
What these results say
- Botev Vratsa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botev Vratsa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Lokomotiv Plovdiv had two goals or fewer.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Botev Vratsa | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 10 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Botev Vratsa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 35% today
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 40% today
From our First League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 22 March 2026Botev Vratsa 1–2 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 17 October 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 15 May 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–3 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 1 March 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 18 October 2024Botev Vratsa 0–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
- 25 November 2023Botev Vratsa 2–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Botev Vratsa carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.22 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.98 goals for Botev Vratsa and 0.79 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botev Vratsa rate 0.48 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lokomotiv Plovdiv rate 0.39 and 1.48.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,393 correct results out of 4,980 settled predictions (48%), with 496 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botev Vratsa the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Botev Vratsa against 0.79 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Botev Vratsa's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/1.48 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
How the model reaches 37% for Botev Vratsa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Botev Vratsa to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Botev Vratsa's ratings take away 26 points and Lokomotiv Plovdiv's ratings add 23 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage40%+4
- Botev Vratsa's ratings14%−26
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv's ratings37%+23
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Botev Vratsa at home · Lokomotiv Plovdiv away
League matches only, First League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All First League matches this season: Botev Vratsa 12, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 11.
Botev Vratsa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Lokomotiv Plovdiv have let in 4 there.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Botev Vratsa have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Botev Vratsa
- vs CSKA 194822 Nov · First Leaguewin 23%
- vs Ludogorets28 Nov · First Leaguewin 18%
- at Slavia Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 27%
- vs CSKA Sofia13 Feb · First Leaguewin 19%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- at Septemvri Sofia20 Nov · First Leaguewin 35%
- vs Spartak Varna28 Nov · First Leaguewin 40%
- vs Levski Sofia5 Dec · First Leaguewin 14%
- at Dunav Ruse13 Feb · First Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.