Our model leans to Manchester City here, but not by much: 57% (fair odds 1.75) against 22% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
Our model leans to Southampton here, but not by much: 42% (fair odds 2.38) against 25% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.
Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth finished with Chelsea winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 47%, though it expected 2-1 rather than 5–1.
Atlas 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Guadalajara Chivas at 41%, and rated the actual result at 27%.
Liverpool 0–3 Manchester City finished with Manchester City winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 49%, though it expected 1-2 rather than 0–3.
Sao Paulo 2–1 Vitoria finished with Sao Paulo winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 47%, though it expected 1-0 rather than 2–1.
Universitario 2–2 FBC Melgar finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Universitario at 42%, and rated the actual result at 28%.
Our model leans to Atletico San Luis here, but not by much: 50% (fair odds 2.00) against 25% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
Our model leans to Bahia here, but not by much: 49% (fair odds 2.04) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
Our model leans to Hull City here, but not by much: 39% (fair odds 2.56) against 31% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
Our model leans to Barcelona here, but not by much: 53% (fair odds 1.89) against 21% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.
Our model leans to Inter here, but not by much: 51% (fair odds 1.96) against 22% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
Our model leans to Sporting CP here, but not by much: 45% (fair odds 2.22) against 23% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.
Our model leans to Millwall here, but not by much: 40% (fair odds 2.50) against 29% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.