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Match preview · 12 October 2026 · UEFA Champions League

Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain: why the model makes it Manchester City at 57%

Our model leans to Manchester City here, but not by much: 57% (fair odds 1.75) against 22% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 12 October 2026 · Championship

Norwich vs Southampton: Southampton favoured at 42%

Our model leans to Southampton here, but not by much: 42% (fair odds 2.38) against 25% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 12 October 2026 · Championship

Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd: a genuine coin flip by the numbers

Portsmouth host Sheffield Utd in a game our model cannot separate: 36% for the home side, 29% for the draw and 35% for the visitors.

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Match preview · 12 October 2026 · UEFA Champions League

Real Betis vs FC Porto: the model can't split them

Real Betis host FC Porto in a game our model cannot separate: 33% for the home side, 26% for the draw and 41% for the visitors.

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Match preview · 12 October 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina

Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate: a genuine coin flip by the numbers

Sarmiento Junin host River Plate in a game our model cannot separate: 37% for the home side, 28% for the draw and 35% for the visitors.

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Match review · 11 October 2026 · Premier League

Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford: how the model saw it

Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Aston Villa at 40%, and rated the actual result at 26%.

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Match review · 11 October 2026 · Premier League

Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth: model review

Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth finished with Chelsea winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 47%, though it expected 2-1 rather than 5–1.

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Match review · 11 October 2026 · Liga MX

Atlas 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas: model review

Atlas 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Guadalajara Chivas at 41%, and rated the actual result at 27%.

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Match review · 11 October 2026 · Serie A

Como 0–0 AS Roma: model review

Como 0–0 AS Roma finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to AS Roma at 43%, and rated the actual result at 29%.

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Match review · 11 October 2026 · Premier League

Liverpool 0–3 Manchester City: model review

Liverpool 0–3 Manchester City finished with Manchester City winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 49%, though it expected 1-2 rather than 0–3.

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Match review · 11 October 2026 · Serie A

Sao Paulo 2–1 Vitoria: model review

Sao Paulo 2–1 Vitoria finished with Sao Paulo winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 47%, though it expected 1-0 rather than 2–1.

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Match review · 11 October 2026 · Primera División

Universitario 2–2 FBC Melgar: model review

Universitario 2–2 FBC Melgar finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Universitario at 42%, and rated the actual result at 28%.

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Match preview · 11 October 2026 · Liga MX

Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna: Atletico San Luis favoured at 50%

Our model leans to Atletico San Luis here, but not by much: 50% (fair odds 2.00) against 25% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 11 October 2026 · Serie A

Bahia vs Mirassol: Bahia favoured at 49%

Our model leans to Bahia here, but not by much: 49% (fair odds 2.04) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 11 October 2026 · Premier League

Hull City vs Everton: why the model makes it Hull City at 39%

Our model leans to Hull City here, but not by much: 39% (fair odds 2.56) against 31% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 11 October 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina

Racing Club vs Belgrano Cordoba: a genuine coin flip by the numbers

Racing Club host Belgrano Cordoba in a game our model cannot separate: 34% for the home side, 33% for the draw and 33% for the visitors.

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Match preview · 11 October 2026 · UEFA Champions League

Galatasaray vs Barcelona: Barcelona favoured at 53%

Our model leans to Barcelona here, but not by much: 53% (fair odds 1.89) against 21% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 11 October 2026 · UEFA Champions League

Inter vs Club Brugge KV: Inter favoured at 51%

Our model leans to Inter here, but not by much: 51% (fair odds 1.96) against 22% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 11 October 2026 · UEFA Champions League

Lens vs Sporting CP: Sporting CP favoured at 45%

Our model leans to Sporting CP here, but not by much: 45% (fair odds 2.22) against 23% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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Match preview · 11 October 2026 · Championship

Millwall vs Swansea: why the model makes it Millwall at 40%

Our model leans to Millwall here, but not by much: 40% (fair odds 2.50) against 29% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.

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