Portsmouth
vs
Sheffield Utd
Championship prediction
Our model says: Portsmouth 1–0 Sheffield Utd
The model makes it 38% Portsmouth, 29% draw, 33% Sheffield Utd — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Portsmouth 1.40, Sheffield Utd 1.25.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Portsmouth are 19th on 8 points from 7 games; Sheffield Utd are 18th on 9 points from 8 games — Championship.
- Portsmouth are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Blackburn.
- Sheffield Utd have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Stoke City.
- Last 6 meetings: Sheffield Utd 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Portsmouth 0–1 Sheffield Utd.
All Championship predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Portsmouth at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd
Portsmouth
- D2-2Blackburn19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton12 September 2026
- W2-0Cardiff5 September 2026
- L0-2Derby1 September 2026
- L1-2away to Bristol City29 August 2026
Sheffield Utd
- L1-2away to Stoke City19 September 2026
- L0-1Wolves13 September 2026
- W2-1away to Blackburn8 September 2026
- L1-3Norwich5 September 2026
- W3-2Bolton1 September 2026
What these results say
- Portsmouth failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sheffield Utd conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sheffield Utd scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sheffield Utd had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 18 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd
- 14 February 2026Portsmouth 0–1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 26 November 2025Sheffield Utd 3–0 PortsmouthChampionship
- 8 February 2025Sheffield Utd 2–1 PortsmouthChampionship
- 28 September 2024Portsmouth 0–0 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- 20 April 2013Portsmouth 3–0 Sheffield UtdLeague One
- 29 October 2012Sheffield Utd 1–0 PortsmouthLeague One
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Portsmouth carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.53 for Sheffield Utd. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Portsmouth and 1.25 for Sheffield Utd. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Portsmouth rate 0.67 in attack and 1.44 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sheffield Utd rate 0.73 and 1.39.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sheffield Utd, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Portsmouth a 0.2% chance of the title and Sheffield Utd 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Portsmouth the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Portsmouth against 1.25 for Sheffield Utd. Portsmouth's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.44 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.39 for Sheffield Utd.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Portsmouth at home · Sheffield Utd away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Portsmouth 7, Sheffield Utd 8.
Portsmouth score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Sheffield Utd have let in 3 there.
Sheffield Utd score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Portsmouth have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Portsmouth
- at Norwich17 Oct · Championshipwin 27%
- at Wolves20 Oct · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Millwall24 Oct · Championshipwin 34%
- at Burnley31 Oct · Championshipwin 23%
Sheffield Utd
- at Bristol City17 Oct · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Derby24 Oct · Championshipwin 42%
- vs Wrexham30 Oct · Championshipwin 40%
- at Preston3 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.