Sarmiento Junin
vs
River Plate
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Sarmiento Junin 1–2 River Plate
The model makes it 35% Sarmiento Junin, 29% draw, 36% River Plate — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sarmiento Junin 1.36, River Plate 1.40.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Sarmiento Junin and River Plate are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Sarmiento Junin are 7th on 16 points from 10 games; River Plate are 9th on 13 points from 10 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Sarmiento Junin have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Racing Club.
- River Plate have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Huracan.
- Last 6 meetings: River Plate 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 March 2026, ended River Plate 2–0 Sarmiento Junin.
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate
Has the model earned this number?
It puts River Plate at 36% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate
Sarmiento Junin
- L1-3away to Racing Club19 September 2026
- D1-1Belgrano Cordoba13 September 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto4 September 2026
- L1-4away to Union Santa Fe28 August 2026
- W2-0Estudiantes La Plata23 August 2026
River Plate
- L1-2Huracan19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atletico Tucuman12 September 2026
- W3-1Independiente Rivadavia6 September 2026
- W3-2away to Banfield30 August 2026
- D2-2Velez Sarsfield23 August 2026
What these results say
- Sarmiento Junin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- River Plate scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- River Plate conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for River Plate had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sarmiento Junin | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 | River Plate | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate
- 15 March 2026River Plate 2–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 12 October 2025River Plate 0–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 April 2025Sarmiento Junin 1–1 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 28 July 2024River Plate 1–0 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
- 20 March 2023Sarmiento Junin 0–2 River PlateLiga Profesional Argentina
- 31 July 2022River Plate 1–2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and River Plate
Sarmiento Junin
- J. Marabel13 goals4 assists
River Plate
- T. Galván6 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sarmiento Junin carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.74 for River Plate. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.36 goals for Sarmiento Junin and 1.40 for River Plate. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sarmiento Junin rate 0.90 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; River Plate rate 0.98 and 1.23.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives River Plate the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Sarmiento Junin against 1.40 for River Plate. Sarmiento Junin's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.23 for River Plate.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sarmiento Junin at home · River Plate away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Sarmiento Junin 26, River Plate 30.
River Plate score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Sarmiento Junin have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sarmiento Junin
- vs Barracas Central18 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 39%
- at Gimnasia La Plata25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 28%
- vs Rosario Central1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 34%
- at Tigre8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 28%
River Plate
- at Belgrano Cordoba18 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 28%
- vs Racing Club25 Oct · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 45%
- at Boca Juniors1 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 25%
- at Aldosivi8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.