11 October 2026, 22:30 UTC

Bahia vs Mirassol Serie A prediction & result

Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Referee: Ramon Abatti
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Bahia 1-0 Mirassol.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Bahia, 27% draw, 24% Mirassol — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bahia at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bahia97%Draw3%Mirassol0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Marcos Victor
11'
•Cristian Olivera
34'
35'
Chico Kim
36'
Walter Leandro Capeloza Artune
⚽Luciano (pen)
38'
45'
🔁Chico Kimout: Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve
45'
🔁Alesson dos Santos Batistaout: Edson Carioca
45'
🔁Gustavo Henric da Silvaout: Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo
🔁Caio Alexandreout: Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho
59'
🔁Marcos Victorout: Román Gómez
59'
Jean Lucas
63'
67'
🔁Bruno Santos de Oliveiraout: André Luis
🔁Cristian Oliveraout: Ademir
72'
73'
🔁Denilson Alves Borgesout: Carlos Eduardo
🔁Rodrigo Nestorout: Éverton Ribeiro
73'
78'
Carlos Eduardo
🔁Alejo Velizout: Willian José
87'
90+3'
Neto Moura
90+4'
•André Luis
90+7'
⚽Reinaldo (pen)

Match stats — Bahia vs Mirassol

53%Possession47%
16Shots10
2On target2
6Corners2
3.22xG1.89

Goals against chances

Bahia1 from 3.22 xGless than the chances were worth
Mirassol0 from 1.89 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bahia 4-3-3
  • 1RonaldoG
  • 44Marcos VictorD
  • 33David DuarteD
  • 3Marco MorenoD
  • 46Luciano JubaD
  • 6Jean LucasM
  • 8Caio AlexandreM
  • 11Rodrigo NestorM
  • 99C. OliveraF
  • 9A. VélizF
  • 16Erick PulgaF
Substitutes
  • 66Zé GuilhermeD
  • 14ErickM
  • 31Roman GomezD
  • 17G. HerreraG
  • 18Lautaro LópezM
  • 23M. SanabriaF
  • 4KanuD
  • 27EveraldoF
  • 7AdemirF
Coach: Rogério Ceni
Mirassol 4-3-3
  • 22WalterG
  • 32Igor FormigaD
  • 2Lucas OliveiraD
  • 3Willian MachadoD
  • 6ReinaldoD
  • 27DenilsonM
  • 25Neto MouraM
  • 10ChicoM
  • 19Gustavo SilvaF
  • 30Bruno SantosF
  • 77AlessonF
Substitutes
  • 80WallissonM
  • 99Zé RobertoF
  • 7ShaylonM
  • 12Victor LuísD
  • 96Carlos EduardoF
  • 20Daniel BorgesD
  • 44GabrielD
  • 90ThomazellaG
  • 17FernandinhoF
Coach: Rafael Guanaes

Form going into Bahia vs Mirassol

Bahia

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Palmeiras9 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Atletico Paranaense20 September 2026
  • W2-1Remo14 September 2026
  • W3-2away to RB Bragantino5 September 2026
  • W3-2Internacional30 August 2026

Mirassol

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to RB Bragantino7 October 2026
  • W2-0Botafogo19 September 2026
  • D2-2Vitoria13 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Coritiba6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Flamengo2 September 2026

What these results say

  • Bahia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Bahia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Bahia had three goals or more.
  • Mirassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Mirassol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Bahia34141195045+553
14Mirassol341010143948-940

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bahia vs Mirassol

  • 11 April 2026Mirassol 1–2 BahiaSerie A
  • 31 August 2025Mirassol 5–1 BahiaSerie A
  • 13 April 2025Bahia 1–1 MirassolSerie A

Leading scorers: Bahia and Mirassol

Bahia

GoalsAssists

  • Luciano Juba112

Mirassol

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bahia beat Mirassol 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Bahia at 49%. The goal: Luciano (penalty) 38' for Bahia. On expected goals it finished 3.22–1.89.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bahia a 18.9% chance to finish in the top four: 23.5% after a win, 13.9% after a draw, 10.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 23.5%, 4.6 points higher than before the match.

For Mirassol the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 11.1% going in: 3.7% after a win, 9.5% after a draw, 14.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.1%, 3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Bahia v Mirassol has moved

First published on 27 Sep at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is Bahia's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Bahia win49%▲ +3
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Mirassol win24%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.