Millwall
vs
Swansea
Championship prediction
Our model says: Millwall 1–0 Swansea
The model makes it 39% Millwall, 30% draw, 31% Swansea — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Millwall 1.41, Swansea 1.16.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Millwall are 11th on 11 points from 8 games; Swansea are top on 17 points from 8 games — Championship.
- Millwall are without a win in 3, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to West Ham.
- Swansea have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win away to Lincoln.
- Last 6 meetings: Millwall 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 January 2026, ended Millwall 2–1 Swansea.
All Championship predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Millwall vs Swansea
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Millwall at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Millwall vs Swansea
Millwall
- D2-2West Ham19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough15 September 2026
- L1-3away to Blackburn12 September 2026
- W4-0Bolton5 September 2026
- L0-3Wrexham2 September 2026
Swansea
- W2-1away to Lincoln19 September 2026
- W3-1Burnley12 September 2026
- L1-3away to Southampton8 September 2026
- D0-0Wrexham5 September 2026
- W2-0Watford1 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Millwall had three goals or more.
- Millwall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swansea scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 |
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Millwall vs Swansea
- 4 January 2026Millwall 2–1 SwanseaChampionship
- 27 September 2025Swansea 1–1 MillwallChampionship
- 26 April 2025Millwall 1–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 26 October 2024Swansea 0–1 MillwallChampionship
- 4 May 2024Swansea 0–1 MillwallChampionship
- 30 September 2023Millwall 0–3 SwanseaChampionship
Leading scorers: Millwall and Swansea
Millwall
- L. Dykes4 goals1 assist
Swansea
- A. Idah3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Millwall carry a model rating of 6.63 against 6.66 for Swansea. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Millwall and 1.16 for Swansea. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Millwall rate 0.82 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Swansea rate 0.77 and 1.14.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Swansea, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Millwall a 3% chance of the title and Swansea 10.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Millwall the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Millwall against 1.16 for Swansea. Millwall's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.14 for Swansea.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Millwall at home · Swansea away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Millwall 8, Swansea 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Millwall
- vs Lincoln17 Oct · Championshipwin 38%
- at Portsmouth24 Oct · Championshipwin 37%
- vs Derby31 Oct · Championshipwin 46%
- at Birmingham3 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
Swansea
- vs West Ham17 Oct · Championshipwin 35%
- at QPR24 Oct · Championshipwin 36%
- vs Blackburn31 Oct · Championshipwin 44%
- at Portsmouth3 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.