League Stage - 2 · 14 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Real Betis vs FC Porto UEFA Champions League prediction

Estadio de La Cartuja, Sevilla

Our model says: Real Betis 1–2 FC Porto

The model makes it 32% Real Betis, 29% draw, 39% FC Porto — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Real Betis 1.32, FC Porto 1.56.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Real Betis are 11th on 3 points from 1 game; FC Porto are 31st on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Champions League.
  • Real Betis are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Deportivo La Coruna.
  • FC Porto are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Benfica.

Live win probability

From kick-off
Real Betis32%3.13
Draw29%3.45
FC Porto39%2.56

These update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.

Model insights: Real Betis vs FC Porto

58%
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Real Betis win Draw FC Porto win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–29%
  3. 0–18%
  4. 2–18%
  5. 1–07%
  6. 0–27%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Real Betis first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 44%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Porto at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Real Betis vs FC Porto

Real Betis

  • W3-2away to Lille8 September 2026

FC Porto

  • L0-2Manchester City8 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Real Betis110032+13
31FC Porto100102-20

Where the two sides stand. Full table

The two sides

Real Betis carry a model rating of 7.05 against 7.3 for FC Porto. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Real Betis and 1.56 for FC Porto. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Real Betis rate 1.16 in attack and 0.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Porto rate 1.45 and 0.59.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Real Betis, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FC Porto the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Real Betis against 1.56 for FC Porto. Real Betis's attack/defence rating is 1.16/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.45/0.59 for FC Porto.

Season stats

Real BetisFC Porto
7Matches7
5W 1D 1LRecord7W 0D 0L
9 1.3 a gameGoals scored18 2.6 a game
7 1.0 a gameGoals conceded3 0.4 a game
4 of 7Clean sheets4 of 7
0 of 7Failed to score0 of 7
–Penalties scored3 of 3
10 1.4 a gameYellow cards6 0.9 a game
4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape4-3-3 7×

Real Betis at home · FC Porto away

3Played3
3W 0D 0LRecord3W 0D 0L
3–0Goals for – against9–1
3 of 3Clean sheets2 of 3

League matches only, this season — Real Betis in the La Liga, FC Porto in the Primeira Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Real Betis 7 in the La Liga, FC Porto 7 in the Primeira Liga.

Real Betis scored 006012
FC Porto conceded 011100

Real Betis score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); FC Porto have let in 1 there.

FC Porto scored 315423
Real Betis conceded 021112

FC Porto score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Real Betis have let in 1 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Real Betis

FC Porto

  • vs PSV Eindhoven20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 55%
  • at GIL Vicente24 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 52%
  • vs Estoril31 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 66%
  • vs Napoli4 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 51%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.