Lens
vs
Sporting CP
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Lens 1–2 Sporting CP
The model makes it 33% Lens, 25% draw, 42% Sporting CP — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (8%).
Expected goals: Lens 1.83, Sporting CP 2.26.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Lens are 10th on 3 points from 1 game; Sporting CP are 7th on 3 points from 1 game — UEFA Champions League.
- Lens are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Monaco.
- Sporting CP are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Arouca.
All Champions League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lens vs Sporting CP
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting CP at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lens vs Sporting CP
Lens
- W3-2away to Slavia Praha10 September 2026
Sporting CP
- W3-1Galatasaray9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Lens carry a model rating of 6.92 against 7.2 for Sporting CP. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Lens and 2.26 for Sporting CP. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lens rate 1.16 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting CP rate 1.62 and 0.82.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting CP the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Lens against 2.26 for Sporting CP. Lens's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.62/0.82 for Sporting CP.
Season stats
Lens at home · Sporting CP away
League matches only, this season — Lens in the Ligue 1, Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Lens 5 in the Ligue 1, Sporting CP 7 in the Primeira Liga.
Lens score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Sporting CP have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Lens
- at Estac Troyes17 Oct · Ligue 1win 49%
- at Club Brugge KV21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 18%
- vs Paris FC24 Oct · Ligue 1win 35%
- at Lille30 Oct · Ligue 1win 27%
Sporting CP
- vs Lask Linz21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 72%
- vs Academico Viseu25 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 57%
- at Casa Pia30 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 63%
- at Shakhtar Donetsk3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.