Atlas
vs
Guadalajara Chivas
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Atlas 1–2 Guadalajara Chivas
The model makes it 33% Atlas, 28% draw, 39% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Atlas 1.34, Guadalajara Chivas 1.59.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 39% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas
Atlas
- W3-2away to Club Tijuana26 September 2026
- D1-1Pumas UNAM19 September 2026
- L2-5away to Toluca12 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC6 September 2026
- L1-3Club Queretaro29 August 2026
Guadalajara Chivas
- L0-2Club Queretaro26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Club America20 September 2026
- W3-0Pumas UNAM14 September 2026
- W3-0away to Atletico San Luis5 September 2026
- D1-1away to CF Pachuca29 August 2026
What these results say
- Atlas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Atlas.
- Guadalajara Chivas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas
- 30 March 2026Atlas 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasFriendlies Clubs
- 8 March 2026Atlas 1–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 4 January 2026Atlas 0–0 Guadalajara ChivasFriendlies Clubs
- 26 October 2025Guadalajara Chivas 4–1 AtlasLiga MX
- 20 April 2025Atlas 1–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 28 December 2024Atlas 0–0 Guadalajara ChivasFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas
Atlas
- Luís Esteves4 goals1 assists
Guadalajara Chivas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Atlas carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.77 for Guadalajara Chivas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Atlas and 1.59 for Guadalajara Chivas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlas rate 0.72 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Guadalajara Chivas rate 0.92 and 1.08.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atlas a 3.8% chance of the title and Guadalajara Chivas 15.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guadalajara Chivas the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Atlas against 1.59 for Guadalajara Chivas. Atlas's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.08 for Guadalajara Chivas.