Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlas 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Atlas, 27% draw, 41% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Guadalajara Chivas at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12C. VargasG
- 19A. FríasD
- 44J. PurataD
- 16M. ValenzuelaD
- 3J. SánchezM
- 18E. MontielM
- 15Paulo RamírezM
- 8R. MmaeeM
- 20K. ZenónM
- 10Luís EstevesM
- 9F. MonzónF
- 58A. GonzálezF
- 28M. CapassoD
- 13G. AguirreD
- 23S. HernándezM
- 27V. RÃosM
- 203J. MartínF
- 26A. RochaM
- 5J. RodríguezD
- 22A. SánchezG
- 1J. RangelG
- 23D. AguirreD
- 16L. ReyD
- 3D. CampilloD
- 37R. LedezmaM
- 28R. GonzálezM
- 11B. GutiérrezM
- 182L. CalderonM
- 25R. AlvaradoM
- 17R. MarínM
- 9Á. SepúlvedaF
- 192C. HernandezD
- 57J. HernándezF
- 2J. CastilloD
- 19K. CastañedaM
- 33J. CarrilloM
- 14H. CamberosM
- 59C. IndaM
- 30Santiago SandovalM
- 13Óscar WhalleyG
Form going into Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas
Atlas
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Club Tijuana26 September 2026
- D1-1Pumas UNAM19 September 2026
- L2-5away to Toluca12 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC6 September 2026
- L1-3Club Queretaro29 August 2026
Guadalajara Chivas
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Club Queretaro26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Club America20 September 2026
- W3-0Pumas UNAM14 September 2026
- W3-0away to Atletico San Luis5 September 2026
- D1-1away to CF Pachuca29 August 2026
What these results say
- Atlas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Atlas.
- Guadalajara Chivas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas
- 30 March 2026Atlas 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasFriendlies Clubs
- 8 March 2026Atlas 1–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 4 January 2026Atlas 0–0 Guadalajara ChivasFriendlies Clubs
- 26 October 2025Guadalajara Chivas 4–1 AtlasLiga MX
- 20 April 2025Atlas 1–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
Leading scorers: Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- F. Monzón51
Guadalajara Chivas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Guadalajara Chivas at 41% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Kevin Zenon 52' for Atlas, Ángel Sepúlveda 86' for Guadalajara Chivas. Sent off: Kevin Castañeda (Guadalajara Chivas) 90+8'. On expected goals it finished 1.74–2.12.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atlas a 22.8% chance to finish in the top four: 37.7% after a win, 21.0% after a draw, 11.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 21.0%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.
For Guadalajara Chivas the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 74.4% going in: 86.1% after a win, 73.8% after a draw, 60.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 73.8%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atlas v Guadalajara Chivas has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 33% / 28% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 32% / 27% / 41%: the biggest move is Guadalajara Chivas's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Atlas win32%▼ −1
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Guadalajara Chivas win41%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.