Hull City
vs
Everton
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Hull City 1–0 Everton
The model makes it 38% Hull City, 31% draw, 31% Everton — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hull City 1.22, Everton 1.00.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hull City vs Everton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hull City at 38% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hull City vs Everton
Hull City
- L1-2away to Newcastle19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Chelsea12 September 2026
- D0-0Aston Villa5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Coventry29 August 2026
- W2-0Manchester United22 August 2026
Everton
- W1-0Ipswich19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tottenham12 September 2026
- D2-2Manchester United6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bournemouth29 August 2026
- W2-0Crystal Palace22 August 2026
What these results say
- Hull City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Everton went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Everton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Everton had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hull City vs Everton
- 8 January 2022Hull City 2–3 EvertonFA Cup
- 18 March 2017Everton 4–0 Hull CityPremier League
- 30 December 2016Hull City 2–2 EvertonPremier League
- 1 January 2015Hull City 2–0 EvertonPremier League
- 3 December 2014Everton 1–1 Hull CityPremier League
- 11 May 2014Hull City 0–2 EvertonPremier League
Leading scorers: Hull City and Everton
Hull City
- M. Belloumi2 goals2 assists
Everton
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hull City carry a model rating of 6.94 against 6.91 for Everton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Hull City and 1.00 for Everton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hull City rate 0.90 in attack and 0.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Everton rate 0.94 and 0.85.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Everton, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hull City the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Hull City against 1 for Everton. Hull City's attack/defence rating is 0.9/0.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.85 for Everton.