Hull City vs Everton Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Hull City 2-2 Everton.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Hull City, 31% draw, 30% Everton — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Hull City at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hull City vs Everton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 19K. TzolakisG
- 2L. CoyleD
- 6S. AjayiD
- 15J. EganD
- 32N. MendyD
- 3R. GilesD
- 11J. GelhardtM
- 25M. CrooksM
- 27R. SlaterM
- 7S. ThomasM
- 9O. McBurnieF
- 47R. VazF
- 42T. IroegbunamM
- 21E. StroudM
- 18B. Norton-CuffyD
- 5H. MoritaM
- 10M. BelloumiF
- 22L. HerringtonD
- 17P. McNairD
- 12D. PhillipsG
- 1J. PickfordG
- 2A. Maitland-NilesD
- 6J. TarkowskiD
- 5M. KeaneD
- 4J. BranthwaiteD
- 37J. GarnerM
- 45H. ArmstrongM
- 22B. JohnsonM
- 8K. Dewsbury-HallM
- 10J. GrealishM
- 11T. BarryF
- 58B. GrahamF
- 19Tyrique GeorgeF
- 30H. HackneyM
- 34M. RöhlM
- 24C. AlcarazM
- 23C. NørgaardM
- 20T. DiblingF
- 15J. O'BrienD
- 12M. TraversG
Form going into Hull City vs Everton
Hull City
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Newcastle19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Chelsea12 September 2026
- D0-0Aston Villa5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Coventry29 August 2026
- W2-0Manchester United22 August 2026
Everton
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Ipswich19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tottenham12 September 2026
- D2-2Manchester United6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bournemouth29 August 2026
- W2-0Crystal Palace22 August 2026
What these results say
- Hull City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Everton went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Everton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Everton had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hull City vs Everton
- 8 January 2022Hull City 2–3 EvertonFA Cup
- 18 March 2017Everton 4–0 Hull CityPremier League
- 30 December 2016Hull City 2–2 EvertonPremier League
- 1 January 2015Hull City 2–0 EvertonPremier League
- 3 December 2014Everton 1–1 Hull CityPremier League
Leading scorers: Hull City and Everton
Hull City
GoalsAssists
- M. Belloumi32
Everton
GoalsAssists
- T. Barry61
- K. Dewsbury-Hall31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hull City and Everton drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Hull City at 39% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Joe Gelhardt 48' for Hull City, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall 55' for Everton, Thierno Barry 68' for Everton, Mohamed Belloumi 74' for Hull City. On expected goals it finished 1.37–1.73.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hull City a 6.7% chance to finish in the top four: 8.1% after a win, 6.1% after a draw, 4.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.1%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.
For Everton the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.3% going in: 7.8% after a win, 6.2% after a draw, 4.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 6.2%.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.