Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atletico San Luis 1-2 Santos Laguna.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Atletico San Luis, 25% draw, 25% Santos Laguna — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico San Luis at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25G. LajudG
- 30B. GalindoD
- 31E. ÁguilaD
- 18A. CruzD
- 2R. TorresM
- 21Ó. MacíasM
- 10S. Salles-LamongeM
- 17A. DuarteM
- 11D. RodríguezM
- 22Rafa LlorenteM
- 99F. MoraF
- 16Lucas EstevesD
- 20L. FloresF
- 7B. GaldamesM
- 14M. GarcíaM
- 5R. MerazM
- 19S. MuñózF
- 8L. NájeraM
- 26S. Pérez BouquetM
- 6JuanpeD
- 1C. AcevedoG
- 3M. CuevasD
- 18F. PardoD
- 25Felipe SánchezD
- 14E. OronaD
- 7D. GonzálezD
- 26R. SordoM
- 21Fran VillalbaM
- 23F. CáseresM
- 10E. BullaudeM
- 29Tahiel Adrián Jiménez SánchezF
- 28Jonathan PérezD
- 77K. PalaciosM
- 8S. MariscalM
- 5A. LópezM
- 20E. LozanoF
- 33H. HolguínG
- 6J. GüémezM
- 17E. EcheverrÃaD
- 19E. AguirreF
Form going into Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna
Atletico San Luis
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Pumas UNAM27 September 2026
- W3-1Necaxa19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Leon15 September 2026
- L0-3Guadalajara Chivas5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Monterrey31 August 2026
Santos Laguna
All competitions we cover
- W1-0CF Pachuca27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Toluca21 September 2026
- W2-1FC Juarez14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cruz Azul6 September 2026
- D0-0Tigres UANL30 August 2026
What these results say
- Atletico San Luis conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico San Luis had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 19 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna
- 23 April 2026Atletico San Luis 2–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 21 September 2025Santos Laguna 1–4 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 30 March 2025Santos Laguna 2–3 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 29 September 2024Atletico San Luis 3–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 29 April 2024Santos Laguna 0–3 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
Leading scorers: Atletico San Luis and Santos Laguna
Atletico San Luis
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Santos Laguna
GoalsAssists
- Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santos Laguna won 2–1 at Atletico San Luis. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico San Luis at 50% and given a win for Santos Laguna 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Oscar Macias 19' for Atletico San Luis, Tahiel Adrian Jimenez 34' for Santos Laguna, Tahiel Adrian Jimenez 64' for Santos Laguna. On expected goals it finished 0.78–2.53.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atletico San Luis a 9.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.9% after a win, 12.0% after a draw, 20.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.1%, 10.3 points higher than before the match.
For Santos Laguna the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 37.9% going in: 19.8% after a win, 34.9% after a draw, 46.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.8%, 18.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atletico San Luis v Santos Laguna has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 50% / 25% / 25%: the biggest move is Atletico San Luis's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Atletico San Luis win50%▲ +6
- Draw25%▼ −3
- Santos Laguna win25%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.