Sao Paulo vs Vitoria Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Sao Paulo 2-1 Vitoria.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Sao Paulo, 30% draw, 25% Vitoria — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sao Paulo at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23RafaelG
- 28NewtonD
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 35SabinoD
- 19Lucas RamonM
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 48D. FerreiraM
- 12IagoM
- 37ArturM
- 43G. SantanaM
- 9J. CalleriF
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 32Pedro LimaD
- 46Pedro FerreiraM
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 45Lucca Marques AlencarF
- 18WendellD
- 17André SilvaF
- 7Lucas MouraF
- 49Ryan FranciscoF
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 98MateusinhoD
- 25CacáD
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 83JamersonD
- 95CaíqueM
- 33ErickM
- 6E. MartínezM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 20Lucas SilvaM
- 91ReneF
- 9Alex BrunoF
- 15WalaceM
- 88Zé VitorM
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 26EdenilsonM
- 7MarinhoF
- 8T. PochettinoM
- 77I. LaquintanaM
- 79Renato KayzerF
Form going into Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
Sao Paulo
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Cruzeiro8 October 2026
- W1-0Internacional20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Palmeiras12 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico Mineiro5 September 2026
- W2-1RB Bragantino29 August 2026
Vitoria
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Chapecoense7 October 2026
- L1-3Cruzeiro20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Mirassol13 September 2026
- W1-0Gremio7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro29 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sao Paulo had two goals or fewer.
- Vitoria scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vitoria had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 44 |
| 15 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
- 11 April 2026Vitoria 2–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 7 December 2025Vitoria 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 9 August 2025Sao Paulo 2–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 25 August 2024Sao Paulo 2–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 5 May 2024Vitoria 1–3 Sao PauloSerie A
Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Vitoria
Sao Paulo
GoalsAssists
- J. Calleri102
- Luciano91
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sao Paulo beat Vitoria 2–1. The model had made a win for Sao Paulo its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jonathan Calleri 20' for Sao Paulo, Emmanuel Martínez 39' for Vitoria, Jonathan Calleri 70' for Sao Paulo. On expected goals it finished 1.80–0.79.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sao Paulo a 2.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 2.7% after a draw, 4.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 1.6 points lower than before the match.
For Vitoria the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 4.8% going in: under 1% after a win, 4.0% after a draw, 6.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.7%, 1.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.