Sao Paulo
vs
Vitoria
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Sao Paulo 1–0 Vitoria
The model makes it 46% Sao Paulo, 30% draw, 24% Vitoria — fair odds of 2.17, 3.33 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Sao Paulo 1.49, Vitoria 0.77.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sao Paulo at 46% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
Sao Paulo
- W1-0Internacional20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Palmeiras12 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico Mineiro5 September 2026
- W2-1RB Bragantino29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Chapecoense23 August 2026
Vitoria
- L1-3Cruzeiro20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Mirassol13 September 2026
- W1-0Gremio7 September 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro29 August 2026
- L0-2Bahia23 August 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sao Paulo had two goals or fewer.
- Vitoria failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitoria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitoria conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 36 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sao Paulo vs Vitoria
- 11 April 2026Vitoria 2–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 7 December 2025Vitoria 1–0 Sao PauloSerie A
- 9 August 2025Sao Paulo 2–0 VitoriaSerie A
- 25 August 2024Sao Paulo 2–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 5 May 2024Vitoria 1–3 Sao PauloSerie A
- 26 October 2018Vitoria 0–1 Sao PauloSerie A
Leading scorers: Sao Paulo and Vitoria
Sao Paulo
- Luciano8 goals2 assists
- J. Calleri8 goals1 assists
Vitoria
- Rene9 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sao Paulo carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.55 for Vitoria. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.77 for Vitoria. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sao Paulo rate 0.77 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vitoria rate 0.67 and 1.23.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sao Paulo the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Sao Paulo against 0.77 for Vitoria. Sao Paulo's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.23 for Vitoria.