Como
vs
AS Roma
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Como 0–1 AS Roma
The model makes it 29% Como, 29% draw, 42% AS Roma — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Como 1.12, AS Roma 1.56.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Como vs AS Roma
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Roma at 42% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 1330 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Como vs AS Roma
Como
- L0-2away to Frosinone20 September 2026
- W2-1Parma14 September 2026
- W4-1away to Genoa4 September 2026
- W2-1away to Napoli30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Udinese22 August 2026
AS Roma
- D2-2Inter19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Torino14 September 2026
- W2-1Atalanta5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Lecce31 August 2026
- W4-0Fiorentina24 August 2026
What these results say
- Como conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Como scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Como.
- AS Roma went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AS Roma scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AS Roma won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Como | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 1 | AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Como vs AS Roma
- 15 March 2026Como 2–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 15 December 2025AS Roma 1–0 ComoSerie A
- 2 March 2025AS Roma 2–1 ComoSerie A
- 15 December 2024Como 2–0 AS RomaSerie A
Leading scorers: Como and AS Roma
Como
- M. Baturina2 goals1 assists
- Assane Diao2 goals1 assists
AS Roma
- D. Malen6 goals
- M. Soulé2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Como carry a model rating of 7.12 against 7.33 for AS Roma. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Como and 1.56 for AS Roma. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Como rate 1.31 in attack and 0.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AS Roma rate 1.61 and 0.62.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Como against 1.56 for AS Roma. Como's attack/defence rating is 1.31/0.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.61/0.62 for AS Roma.