Como vs AS Roma Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Como 0-0 AS Roma.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Como, 27% draw, 45% AS Roma — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
AS Roma at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Como vs AS Roma
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. ButezG
- 27Yan CoutoD
- 4Jacobo Ramón NaverosD
- 99T. ChalobahD
- 16KaikiD
- 5M. PerroneM
- 7L. da CunhaM
- 11Assane DiaoM
- 10N. PazM
- 8M. CaqueretM
- 9T. DouvikasF
- 3Álex ValleD
- 28I. SmolčićD
- 97Robert SánchezG
- 17Jesús RodríguezF
- 21S. RicciM
- 6Luis MillaM
- 22M. VigoritoG
- 20M. BaturinaM
- 30M. LiberaliM
- 95P. GolliniG
- 23G. ManciniD
- 5E. NdickaD
- 22HermosoD
- 20N. MolinaM
- 15M. de RoonM
- 17M. KonéM
- 43WesleyM
- 21P. DybalaM
- 7L. PellegriniM
- 14D. MalenF
- 9S. CastroF
- 70G. De MarziG
- 87D. GhilardiD
- 77E. LulliD
- 61N. PisilliM
- 2D. RenschD
- 18M. SouléF
- 26L. BalerdiD
- 32D. VásquezG
Form going into Como vs AS Roma
Como
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Frosinone20 September 2026
- W2-1Parma14 September 2026
- W4-1RB Leipzig10 September 2026
- W4-1away to Genoa4 September 2026
- W2-1away to Napoli30 August 2026
AS Roma
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Inter19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Torino14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Fenerbahçe10 September 2026
- W2-1Atalanta5 September 2026
- W4-0away to Lecce31 August 2026
What these results say
- Como conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Como won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Como scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AS Roma went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AS Roma scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Como | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 23 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Como vs AS Roma
- 15 March 2026Como 2–1 AS RomaSerie A
- 15 December 2025AS Roma 1–0 ComoSerie A
- 2 March 2025AS Roma 2–1 ComoSerie A
- 15 December 2024Como 2–0 AS RomaSerie A
Leading scorers: Como and AS Roma
Como
GoalsAssists
- T. Douvikas50
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen82
- Rodrigo Mora40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Como and AS Roma drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for AS Roma at 45% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. Sent off: Donyell Malen (AS Roma) 53'. On expected goals it finished 1.49–1.12.
How the call on Como v AS Roma has moved
First published on 27 Sep at 29% / 29% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 28% / 27% / 45%: the biggest move is AS Roma's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Como win28%▼ −1
- Draw27%▼ −2
- AS Roma win45%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.