Universitario
vs
FBC Melgar
Primera División prediction & result
Final score: Universitario 2-2 FBC Melgar.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Universitario, 27% draw, 31% FBC Melgar — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Universitario 1.59, FBC Melgar 1.28.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Model insights: Universitario vs FBC Melgar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitario at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universitario vs FBC Melgar
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. RomeroG
- 4A. SantamaríaD
- 3W. RiverosD
- 2C. FaraD
- 23J. MurrugarraM
- 24A. PoloM
- 10H. CalcaterraM
- 17J. ConchaM
- 33C. IngaM
- 18G. LapadulaF
- 20A. ValeraF
- 29A. CorzoD
- 19É. FloresM
- 8H. FértoliM
- 39P. QuispeM
- 15J. RequenaM
- 77B. ReynaF
- 11J. RiveraF
- 25M. VargasG
- 30Lisandro Joel AlzugarayF
- 21J. CabezudoG
- 33M. LazoD
- 23J. EscobarD
- 3L. GonzálezD
- 27N. CabanillasD
- 25K. MindaM
- 24W. TandazoM
- 7C. BordacaharM
- 10N. QuagliataM
- 8L. GuzmánM
- 9B. CuestaF
- 90J. AlcántarD
- 12C. CácedaG
- 16J. CáceresM
- 80J. D´ArrigoM
- 5A. DeneumostierD
- 36P. NunezM
- 11J. VidalesF
- 77F. ZanelattoF
- 45Matias ZegarraD
Form going into Universitario vs FBC Melgar
Universitario
- L0-4away to Deportivo Garcilaso19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Alianza Lima13 September 2026
- D2-2Comerciantes Unidos6 September 2026
- W4-2away to UTC Cajamarca29 August 2026
FBC Melgar
- D1-1Sport Boys20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cusco12 September 2026
- W3-0ADT6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Grau1 September 2026
What these results say
- Universitario conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Universitario had three goals or more.
- Universitario scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FBC Melgar scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for FBC Melgar had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Universitario | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45 | 33 | +12 | 50 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47 | 31 | +16 | 47 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Universitario vs FBC Melgar
- 11 October 2026Universitario 2–2 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 19 April 2026FBC Melgar 2–1 UniversitarioPrimera División
- 20 January 2026Universitario 3–2 FBC MelgarFriendlies Clubs
- 14 September 2025FBC Melgar 1–2 UniversitarioPrimera División
- 14 April 2025Universitario 4–1 FBC MelgarPrimera División
- 1 August 2024FBC Melgar 1–0 UniversitarioPrimera División
Leading scorers: Universitario and FBC Melgar
Universitario
GoalsAssists
- A. Valera162
FBC Melgar
GoalsAssists
- B. Cuesta136
- J. Vidales121
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.59 goals for Universitario and 1.28 for FBC Melgar; the game produced 2 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Bernardo Cuesta 39' (FBC Melgar), Cristian Bordacahar 56' (FBC Melgar), Alex Valera 84' (Universitario), Alex Valera 86' (Universitario).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitario the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Universitario against 1.28 for FBC Melgar. Universitario's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.36 for FBC Melgar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.