New York Red Bulls 0–3 St. Louis City: how the model saw it
New York Red Bulls 0–3 St. Louis City finished with St. Louis City winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 42%, though it expected 1-2 rather than 0–3.
More →New York Red Bulls 0–3 St. Louis City finished with St. Louis City winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 42%, though it expected 1-2 rather than 0–3.
More →Atletico Nacional 3–1 Junior finished with Atletico Nacional winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 51%, though it expected 2-0 rather than 3–1.
More →Denmark 2–4 Portugal finished with Portugal winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 39%, though it expected 1-2 rather than 2–4.
More →Wales 2–1 Norway finished with Wales winning. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Norway at 42%, and rated the actual result at 31%.
More →Our model leans to England here, but not by much: 45% (fair odds 2.22) against 28% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Spain go into this one as a clear favourite by our numbers: 67%, which is fair odds of 1.49. Our published scoreline is 2-0 — the likeliest exact score within that result rather than across the whole match — and the model gives Czechia 13% to win outright.
More →Our model leans to Switzerland here, but not by much: 50% (fair odds 2.00) against 28% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Independiente Medellin 2–2 Millonarios finished with a draw. The model got this one wrong. It leaned to Independiente Medellin at 39%, and rated the actual result at 30%.
More →Our model leans to Belgium here, but not by much: 49% (fair odds 2.04) against 26% for the draw. Published scoreline: 2-1, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to France here, but not by much: 42% (fair odds 2.38) against 30% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Poland host Romania in a game our model cannot separate: 37% for the home side, 28% for the draw and 35% for the visitors.
More →Czechia 0–2 England finished with England winning. Our model had called it exactly: it published 0-2, a scoreline it rated at 9%.
More →Spain 4–1 Croatia finished with Spain winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 52%, though it expected 2-0 rather than 4–1.
More →Denmark host Portugal in a game our model cannot separate: 32% for the home side, 28% for the draw and 40% for the visitors.
More →Our model leans to Rep. Of Ireland here, but not by much: 41% (fair odds 2.44) against 30% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-0, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →Our model leans to Norway here, but not by much: 41% (fair odds 2.44) against 27% for the draw. Published scoreline: 1-2, the likeliest exact score within that result.
More →We went back over 2,823 matches we called before kick-off. In the middle of the range our numbers hold up. Teams we gave 70% or more won 62.0% of the time, not the 78.2% we said.
More →Norway 1–2 Portugal finished with Portugal winning. Our model had called it exactly: it published 1-2, a scoreline it rated at 9%.
More →Armenia 2–3 Montenegro finished with Montenegro winning. The model had the right result: it gave that outcome 50%, though it expected 0-2 rather than 2–3.
More →Belgium 0–1 France finished with France winning. Our model had called it exactly: it published 0-1, a scoreline it rated at 10%.
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