Belgium vs Türkiye UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Belgium 3-0 Türkiye.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Belgium, 26% draw, 25% Türkiye — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Belgium at 49%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Belgium vs Türkiye
Line-ups
- 1S. LammensG
- 21T. CastagneD
- 15N. NgoyD
- 4B. MecheleD
- 5M. De CuyperD
- 7K. De BruyneM
- 8Y. TielemansM
- 20H. VanakenM
- 14D. LukebakioF
- 17C. De KetelaereF
- 22M. GodtsF
- 16K. De WinterD
- 2Z. DebastD
- 19M. FofanaF
- 6R. LaviaM
- 9R. LukakuF
- 11L. OpendaF
- 13M. PendersG
- 23N. RaskinM
- 18J. SeysD
- 1U. ÇakırG
- 2Z. ÇelikD
- 3M. DemiralD
- 14A. BardakcıD
- 20F. KadıoğluD
- 18O. AydınM
- 6B. ElmazM
- 16İ. YüksekM
- 7K. AktürkoğluM
- 10A. GülerF
- 21B. YılmazF
- 4E. TopçuD
- 8E. TıknazM
- 23M. ŞengezerG
- 5S. ÖzcanM
- 17İ. KahveciM
- 15O. KabakD
- 9D. GülF
- 11I. FakiliF
- 22M. EskihellaçD
Form going into Belgium vs Türkiye
Belgium
UEFA Nations League
- L0-1France28 September 2026
- W2-0away to Italy25 September 2026
Türkiye
UEFA Nations League
- L1-4Italy28 September 2026
- L0-1France25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Belgium | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Belgium and Türkiye
Belgium
GoalsAssists
- D. Lukebakio21
Türkiye
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Belgium beat Türkiye 3–0. The model had made a win for Belgium its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Kevin De Bruyne 10' for Belgium, Kevin De Bruyne 59' for Belgium, Romelu Lukaku 76' for Belgium.