1 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Denmark vs Portugal UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Referee: Mikola Balakin
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Denmark 2-4 Portugal.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Denmark, 28% draw, 40% Portugal — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Portugal at 40%: of 2,595 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.7% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Denmark0%Draw1%Portugal99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽João Canceloassist: Gonçalo Ramos
⚽Mikkel Damsgaardassist: Joakim Maehle
23'
25'
⚽Gonçalo Ramosassist: Bruno Fernandes
🔁Adam Daghimout: Gustav Isaksen
45'
⚽Rasmus Hojlundassist: Mikkel Damsgaard
53'
63'
🔁João Canceloout: Diogo Dalot
63'
🔁Rafael Leãoout: Francisco Trincão
67'
⚽Vitinhaassist: Bruno Fernandes
68'
Jorge Fernando Pinheiro de Jesus
🔁Morten Hjulmandout: Victor Froholdt
74'
Mohammed Daramy
79'
🔁Joakim Maehleout: Nikolas Nartey
80'
81'
🔁Gonçalo Ramosout: João Neves
81'
🔁Pedro Netoout: Joao Felix
82'
Rúben Neves
🔁Mikkel Damsgaardout: Kasper Hogh
85'
87'
⚽Joao Felixassist: Diogo Dalot
90+2'
🔁Bruno Fernandesout: Tomás Araújo

Match stats — Denmark vs Portugal

54%Possession46%
12Shots19
3On target10
3Corners7

Line-ups

Denmark 4-2-3-1
  • 16M. HermansenG
  • 13R. KristensenD
  • 2J. AndersenD
  • 3O. ProvstgaardD
  • 5J. MæhleD
  • 21M. HjulmandM
  • 23P. HøjbjergM
  • 17A. DaghimM
  • 14M. DamsgaardM
  • 20M. DaramyM
  • 9R. HøjlundF
Substitutes
  • 12M. BidstrupM
  • 7Victor Mow FroholdtM
  • 18A. GaaeiD
  • 19K. HøghF
  • 4L. HøgsbergD
  • 8G. IsaksenF
  • 22F. JörgensenG
  • 10T. JørgensenM
  • 1A. JungdalG
Coach: B. Riemer
Portugal 4-2-3-1
  • 1Diogo CostaG
  • 20João CanceloD
  • 3Rúben DiasD
  • 13Renato VeigaD
  • 19Nuno MendesD
  • 21Rúben NevesM
  • 23VitinhaM
  • 18Pedro NetoM
  • 8Bruno FernandesM
  • 7Rafael LeãoM
  • 9Gonçalo RamosF
Substitutes
  • 16TrincãoF
  • 5Nuno TavaresD
  • 22Samuel SoaresG
  • 17Fábio SilvaF
  • 10Bernardo SilvaM
  • 6João PalhinhaM
  • 14Gonçalo InácioD
  • 2Diogo DalotD
  • 4Tomás AraújoD
Coach: Jorge Jesus

Form going into Denmark vs Portugal

Denmark

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-0Wales27 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Norway24 September 2026

Portugal

UEFA Nations League

  • W2-1away to Norway27 September 2026
  • W1-0Wales24 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Denmark42027706
1Portugal440094+512

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Denmark vs Portugal

  • 23 March 2025Portugal 5–2 DenmarkUEFA Nations League
  • 20 March 2025Denmark 1–0 PortugalUEFA Nations League
  • 13 June 2012Denmark 2–3 PortugalEuro Championship

Leading scorers: Denmark and Portugal

Denmark

GoalsAssists

  • R. Højlund30

Portugal

GoalsAssists

  • Gonçalo Ramos31
  • João Félix31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Portugal won 4–2 at Denmark. The model had made a win for Portugal its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: João Cancelo 13' for Portugal, Mikkel Damsgaard 23' for Denmark, Gonçalo Ramos 25' for Portugal, Rasmus Hojlund 53' for Denmark, Vitinha 67' for Portugal, Joao Felix 87' for Portugal.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.