Spain vs Croatia UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Spain 4-1 Croatia.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Spain, 27% draw, 21% Croatia — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spain at 52% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Spain vs Croatia
Line-ups
- 23Unai SimónG
- 12Marc PubillD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 2D. HuijsenD
- 22Marc CucurellaD
- 9FermínM
- 18Martín ZubimendiM
- 8Fabián RuizM
- 19Lamine YamalF
- 21Mikel OyarzabalF
- 15Álex BaenaF
- 3Álex GrimaldoD
- 4Iván FresnedaD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 13Josep MartínezG
- 6Mikel MerinoM
- 11Víctor MuñozF
- 10Dani OlmoM
- 20PedriM
- 1David RayaG
- 1D. LivakovićG
- 2I. SmolčićD
- 6J. ŠutaloD
- 3M. PongračićD
- 4J. GvardiolD
- 22J. MišićM
- 8M. KovačićM
- 19Marco PasalicM
- 17P. SučićM
- 14I. PerišićM
- 20D. BeljoF
- 5L. VuškovićD
- 13N. VlašićM
- 21L. SučićM
- 12I. PandurG
- 10L. ModrićM
- 9A. KramarićF
- 23D. KotarskiG
- 18K. JakićM
- 7F. IvanovićF
Form going into Spain vs Croatia
Spain
UEFA Nations League
- W3-2away to England26 September 2026
Croatia
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1away to Czechia26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spain vs Croatia
- 15 June 2024Spain 3–0 CroatiaEuro Championship
- 18 June 2023Croatia 0–0 SpainUEFA Nations League
- 28 June 2021Croatia 3–5 SpainEuro Championship
- 15 November 2018Croatia 3–2 SpainUEFA Nations League
- 11 September 2018Spain 6–0 CroatiaUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Spain and Croatia
Spain
GoalsAssists
- Lamine Yamal41
- Mikel Merino31
Croatia
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Spain beat Croatia 4–1. The model had made a win for Spain its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Lamine Yamal 2' for Spain, Dion Drena Beljo 28' for Croatia, Marc Pubill 31' for Spain, Lamine Yamal 63' for Spain, Nico Williams 89' for Spain.