2 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

France vs Italy UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Stade de France, Paris
Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano
Full time1 – 1

Final score: France 1-1 Italy.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% France, 30% draw, 28% Italy — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

France at 42%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

France3%Draw93%Italy4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

54'
Nicolo Fagioli
⚽Michael Oliseassist: Rayan Cherki
55'
62'
🔁Pio Espositoout: Antonio Vergara
62'
🔁Sandro Tonaliout: Nicolò Barella
68'
⚽Alessandro Bastoni
Dayot Upamecano
73'
73'
Moise Kean
🔁Désiré Doueout: Bradley Barcola
76'
🔁Rayan Cherkiout: Eduardo Camavinga
76'
80'
🔁Sebastiano Espositoout: Daniel Maldini
80'
🔁Davide Frattesiout: Issa Doumbia
82'
Antonio Vergara
Dayot Upamecano
85'
🔁Lucas Da Cunhaout: Maxence Lacroix
87'
90'
🔁Nicolo Fagioliout: Gianluca Scamacca
90+2'
Alessandro Bastoni

Match stats — France vs Italy

65%Possession35%
18Shots14
8On target2
6Corners4

Line-ups

France 4-3-3
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 2P. KaluluD
  • 22J. JacquetD
  • 4D. UpamecanoD
  • 3A. TruffertD
  • 9R. CherkiM
  • 21L. da CunhaM
  • 14A. RabiotM
  • 11M. OliseF
  • 7O. DembéléF
  • 20D. DouéF
Substitutes
  • 12B. BarcolaF
  • 23J. ButezG
  • 6E. CamavingaM
  • 13A. DioufM
  • 8M. KonéM
  • 5J. KoundéD
  • 17M. LacroixD
  • 19E. LepaulF
  • 1G. RestesG
Coach: Z. Zidane
Italy 4-3-3
  • 1G. DonnarummaG
  • 2M. KayodeD
  • 19G. ScalviniD
  • 6A. BastoniD
  • 5R. CalafioriD
  • 16D. FrattesiM
  • 8S. TonaliM
  • 10N. FagioliM
  • 20S. EspositoF
  • 7F. EspositoF
  • 9M. KeanF
Substitutes
  • 22G. Di LorenzoD
  • 18N. BarellaM
  • 12M. CarnesecchiG
  • 15I. DoumbiaM
  • 17D. MaldiniF
  • 23G. ManciniD
  • 3M. RuggeriD
  • 11G. ScamaccaF
  • 21A. VergaraM
Coach: R. Mancini

Form going into France vs Italy

France

UEFA Nations League

  • W1-0away to Belgium28 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Türkiye25 September 2026

Italy

UEFA Nations League

  • W4-1away to Türkiye28 September 2026
  • L0-2Belgium25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1France431072+510
2Italy421185+37

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: France vs Italy

  • 17 November 2024Italy 1–3 FranceUEFA Nations League
  • 6 September 2024France 1–3 ItalyUEFA Nations League
  • 1 June 2018France 3–1 ItalyFriendlies
  • 17 June 2008France 0–2 ItalyEuro Championship

The full France vs Italy record →

Leading scorers: France and Italy

France

GoalsAssists

  • M. Olise42

Italy

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

France and Italy drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for France at 42% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Michael Olise 55' for France, Alessandro Bastoni 68' for Italy. Sent off: Dayot Upamecano (France) 85'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.