3 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Spain vs Czechia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo
Referee: Vassilis Fotias, Greece
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Spain 3-1 Czechia.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% Spain, 20% draw, 13% Czechia — fair odds of 1.49, 5.00 and 7.69.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Spain at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Spain99%Draw1%Czechia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Lamine Yamalassist: Daniel Olmo Carvajal
6'
⚽Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante
35'
🔁Alejandro Baena Rodríguezout: Yeremy Pino
45'
🔁Lamine Yamalout: Víctor Muñoz
45'
57'
🔁Lukas Ambrosout: Ryan Naderi
57'
🔁Roman Macekout: Lukáš Červ
🔁Daniel Olmo Carvajalout: Fermín López
67'
🔁Pedriout: Mikel Merino
67'
69'
⚽Jiri Slamaassist: Adam Hložek
73'
🔁Alex Králout: Michal Sadílek
73'
🔁Matej Radostaout: Pavel Bucha
🔁Rodrigo Hernandez Cascanteout: Martín Zubimendi
77'
79'
Ladislav Krejčí
82'
Michal Sadílek
85'
Ladislav Krejčí
85'
Santiago Denia Sánchez
87'
🔁Adam Hložekout: Martin Vitik
89'
Ondrej Lingr
⚽Mikel Merino
89'
90'
Stepan Chaloupek
90+1'
Antonin Kinsky
Fermín López
90+3'

Match stats — Spain vs Czechia

69%Possession31%
18Shots5
10On target2
5Corners0

Line-ups

Spain 4-3-3
  • 1David RayaG
  • 4Iván FresnedaD
  • 3Robin Le NormandD
  • 14Aymeric LaporteD
  • 5Fran GarcíaD
  • 10Dani OlmoM
  • 16RodriM
  • 20PedriM
  • 19Lamine YamalF
  • 17Roberto FernándezF
  • 15Álex BaenaF
Substitutes
  • 22Marc CucurellaD
  • 9FermínM
  • 2D. HuijsenD
  • 13Josep MartínezG
  • 6Mikel MerinoM
  • 7Víctor MuñozF
  • 21Mikel OyarzabalF
  • 11Yeremy PinoM
  • 12Marc PubillD
Coach: Luis de la Fuente
Czechia 4-2-3-1
  • 23A. KinskýG
  • 22M. SáčekD
  • 6Š. ChaloupekD
  • 7L. KrejčíD
  • 5J. SlámaD
  • 21A. KrálM
  • 19R. MacekM
  • 18M. RadostaM
  • 13L. AmbrosM
  • 20O. LingrM
  • 10A. HložekF
Substitutes
  • 16L. HorníčekG
  • 4R. HranáčD
  • 1M. KovářG
  • 2O. KričfalušiD
  • 9R. NaderiF
  • 8M. SadílekM
  • 15M. ŠubertM
  • 11D. VašulínF
  • 14M. VitíkD
Coach: Santi

Form going into Spain vs Czechia

Spain

UEFA Nations League

  • W4-1Croatia29 September 2026
  • W3-2away to England26 September 2026

Czechia

UEFA Nations League

  • L0-2England29 September 2026
  • L1-2Croatia26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Spain4400125+712
4Czechia4004210-80

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Spain vs Czechia

  • 12 June 2022Spain 2–0 CzechiaUEFA Nations League
  • 5 June 2022Czechia 2–2 SpainUEFA Nations League
  • 13 June 2016Spain 1–0 CzechiaEuro Championship

Leading scorers: Spain and Czechia

Spain

GoalsAssists

  • Lamine Yamal41
  • Mikel Merino31

Czechia

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Spain beat Czechia 3–1. The model had made a win for Spain its most likely outcome, at 67%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Lamine Yamal 6' for Spain, Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante 35' for Spain, Jiri Slama 69' for Czechia, Mikel Merino 89' for Spain. Sent off: Ladislav Krejčí (Czechia) 85'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.