Warta Poznań
vs
Pogoń Siedlce
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Warta Poznań 1–0 Pogoń Siedlce
The model makes it 46% Warta Poznań, 29% draw, 25% Pogoń Siedlce — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Warta Poznań 1.48, Pogoń Siedlce 0.96.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Warta Poznań's rating is built from 14 Polish I Liga matches and Pogoń Siedlce's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Warta Poznań are 9th on 19 points from 14 games; Pogoń Siedlce are 10th on 19 points from 14 games — I Liga.
- Warta Poznań are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Polonia Warszawa.
- Pogoń Siedlce are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
- Last 2 meetings: level at 1 win each, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 May 2025, ended Pogoń Siedlce 2–1 Warta Poznań.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Warta Poznań vs Pogoń Siedlce
Has the model earned this number?
Warta Poznań at 46%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Warta Poznań vs Pogoń Siedlce
Warta Poznań
I Liga
- L0-3Polonia Warszawa7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Podbeskidzie31 October 2026
- L0-1ŁKS Łódź26 October 2026
- W1-0Unia Skierniewice16 October 2026
- L1-2away to Stal Mielec11 October 2026
Pogoń Siedlce
I Liga
- W2-1Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki8 November 2026
- D1-1Ruch Chorzów3 November 2026
- W1-0away to Odra Opole25 October 2026
- L3-4Stal Rzeszów18 October 2026
- L1-3Puszcza Niepołomice15 October 2026
What these results say
- Warta Poznań failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Warta Poznań conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pogoń Siedlce scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pogoń Siedlce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Pogoń Siedlce.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Warta Poznań | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 19 |
| 10 | Pogoń Siedlce | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Warta Poznań vs Pogoń Siedlce
- 25 May 2025Pogoń Siedlce 2–1 Warta PoznańI Liga
- 24 November 2024Warta Poznań 2–1 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Warta Poznań a 1.7% chance of the title and Pogoń Siedlce 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Warta Poznań the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Warta Poznań against 0.96 for Pogoń Siedlce. Warta Poznań's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.72 for Pogoń Siedlce.
How the model reaches 46% for Warta Poznań to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Warta Poznań to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Warta Poznań's ratings add 2 points and Pogoń Siedlce's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Warta Poznań's ratings45%+2
- Pogoń Siedlce's ratings46%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Warta Poznań at home · Pogoń Siedlce away
League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Warta Poznań 14, Pogoń Siedlce 14.
Warta Poznań score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Pogoń Siedlce have let in 1 there.
Pogoń Siedlce score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Warta Poznań have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Warta Poznań
- at Stal Rzeszów6 Dec · I Ligawin 33%
- vs Polonia Bytom12 Dec · I Ligawin 40%
- vs Lechia Gdansk6 Feb · I Ligawin 40%
- vs Nieciecza13 Feb · I Ligawin 42%
Pogoń Siedlce
- vs Miedz Legnica4 Dec · I Ligawin 34%
- at ŁKS Łódź12 Dec · I Ligawin 21%
- at Nieciecza6 Feb · I Ligawin 23%
- vs Polonia Bytom13 Feb · I Ligawin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.