Regular Season - 15 · 21 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia I Liga prediction

Stadion Miejski, Grodzisk Mazowiecki

Our model says: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1–0 Arka Gdynia

The model makes it 41% Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, 29% draw, 30% Arka Gdynia — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.39, Arka Gdynia 1.09.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's rating is built from 48 Polish I Liga matches and Arka Gdynia's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are 7th on 21 points from 14 games; Arka Gdynia are 12th on 18 points from 14 games — I Liga.
  • Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Pogoń Siedlce.
  • Arka Gdynia are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Podbeskidzie.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia

50%
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win Draw Arka Gdynia win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 0–09%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 0–18%
  6. 2–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki first; the other scorelines share the remaining 35%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Arka Gdynia

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

I Liga

  • L1-2away to Pogoń Siedlce8 November 2026
  • L0-1Stal Mielec30 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Ruch Chorzów25 October 2026
  • L0-1Polonia Warszawa17 October 2026
  • W4-0away to Chrobry Głogów10 October 2026

Arka Gdynia

I Liga

  • W3-1Podbeskidzie7 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Chrobry Głogów3 November 2026
  • W3-1Nieciecza24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Lechia Gdansk18 October 2026
  • L1-2Polonia Warszawa10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Arka Gdynia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Arka Gdynia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Arka Gdynia had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki146352014+621
12Arka Gdynia145361917+218

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Chance to finish in the top two · 8% today

Win 10%
Draw 6%
Defeat 5%

Arka Gdynia

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today

Win 5%
Draw 8%
Defeat 11%

From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki a 2.9% chance of the title and Arka Gdynia 2.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki v Arka Gdynia has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win41%▼ −3
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Arka Gdynia win30%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Arka Gdynia
0.52 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.54
1.67 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.64
1.39 Model expected goals (this match) 1.09

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki against 1.09 for Arka Gdynia. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.64 for Arka Gdynia.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.3 for Arka Gdynia. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 41% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's ratings take away 1 point and Arka Gdynia's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 41%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's ratings42%−1
  5. Arka Gdynia's ratings41%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiArka Gdynia
14Matches14
6W 3D 5LRecord5W 3D 6L
20 1.4 per gameGoals scored19 1.4 per game
14 1.0 per gameGoals conceded17 1.2 per game
6 of 14Clean sheets4 of 14
3 of 14Failed to score4 of 14
2 of 2Penalties scored–
26 1.9 per gameYellow cards26 1.9 per game
1Red cards3

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at home · Arka Gdynia away

7Played7
3W 2D 2LRecord1W 1D 5L
7–5Goals for – against3–11
3 of 7Clean sheets2 of 7

League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All I Liga matches this season: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 14, Arka Gdynia 14.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki scored 245244
Arka Gdynia conceded 044234

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Arka Gdynia have let in 4 there.

Arka Gdynia scored 254611
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki conceded 124213

Arka Gdynia score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

  • at Podbeskidzie28 Nov · I Ligawin 31%
  • vs Odra Opole5 Dec · I Ligawin 51%
  • vs Lechia Gdansk12 Dec · I Ligawin 41%
  • at Puszcza Niepołomice6 Feb · I Ligawin 29%
  • vs Miedz Legnica13 Feb · I Ligawin 38%

Arka Gdynia

  • vs Ruch Chorzów28 Nov · I Ligawin 39%
  • at Stal Mielec4 Dec · I Ligawin 34%
  • vs Odra Opole12 Dec · I Ligawin 53%
  • at Stal Rzeszów6 Feb · I Ligawin 35%
  • vs Unia Skierniewice13 Feb · I Ligawin 51%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.