Stal Rzeszów
vs
Polonia Bytom
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Stal Rzeszów 1–2 Polonia Bytom
The model makes it 37% Stal Rzeszów, 25% draw, 38% Polonia Bytom — fair odds of 2.70, 4.00 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Stal Rzeszów 1.67, Polonia Bytom 1.70.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Stal Rzeszów and Polonia Bytom are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Stal Rzeszów's rating is built from 48 Polish I Liga matches and Polonia Bytom's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Stal Rzeszów are 13th on 18 points from 14 games; Polonia Bytom are 3rd on 24 points from 14 games — I Liga.
- Stal Rzeszów are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to ŁKS Łódź.
- Polonia Bytom are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Lechia Gdansk.
- Last 2 meetings: Stal Rzeszów 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 February 2026, ended Stal Rzeszów 3–1 Polonia Bytom.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Bytom
Has the model earned this number?
Polonia Bytom at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Bytom
Stal Rzeszów
I Liga
- L0-1away to ŁKS Łódź8 November 2026
- D2-2Puszcza Niepołomice2 November 2026
- L1-2away to Podbeskidzie25 October 2026
- W4-3away to Pogoń Siedlce18 October 2026
- L1-2Lechia Gdansk12 October 2026
Polonia Bytom
I Liga
- W1-0Lechia Gdansk8 November 2026
- W3-0Odra Opole2 November 2026
- W2-1away to Unia Skierniewice24 October 2026
- W3-2Chrobry Głogów17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Puszcza Niepołomice11 October 2026
What these results say
- Stal Rzeszów conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stal Rzeszów failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stal Rzeszów scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Polonia Bytom won every one of these 5 matches.
- Polonia Bytom scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Stal Rzeszów | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 18 |
| 3 | Polonia Bytom | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Stal Rzeszów
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
Polonia Bytom
Chance to finish in the top two · 22% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Bytom
- 15 February 2026Stal Rzeszów 3–1 Polonia BytomI Liga
- 9 August 2025Polonia Bytom 0–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stal Rzeszów a 0.5% chance of the title and Polonia Bytom 10.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Polonia Bytom the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Stal Rzeszów against 1.70 for Polonia Bytom. Stal Rzeszów's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.83 for Polonia Bytom.
How the model reaches 38% for Polonia Bytom to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Polonia Bytom to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Stal Rzeszów's ratings add 4 points and Polonia Bytom's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Stal Rzeszów's ratings33%+4
- Polonia Bytom's ratings38%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Stal Rzeszów at home · Polonia Bytom away
League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Stal Rzeszów 14, Polonia Bytom 14.
Stal Rzeszów score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Polonia Bytom have let in 5 there.
Polonia Bytom score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Stal Rzeszów have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Stal Rzeszów
- at Nieciecza28 Nov · I Ligawin 23%
- vs Warta Poznań6 Dec · I Ligawin 40%
- at Chrobry Głogów12 Dec · I Ligawin 25%
- vs Arka Gdynia6 Feb · I Ligawin 38%
- at Stal Mielec13 Feb · I Ligawin 28%
Polonia Bytom
- at Miedz Legnica30 Nov · I Ligawin 28%
- vs Nieciecza7 Dec · I Ligawin 47%
- at Warta Poznań12 Dec · I Ligawin 33%
- vs ŁKS Łódź6 Feb · I Ligawin 41%
- at Pogoń Siedlce13 Feb · I Ligawin 36%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.