OH Leuven
vs
Kortrijk
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: OH Leuven 1–0 Kortrijk
The model makes it 56% OH Leuven, 27% draw, 17% Kortrijk — fair odds of 1.79, 3.70 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: OH Leuven 1.61, Kortrijk 0.67.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,130 settled matches.
One-sided: OH Leuven are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. OH Leuven's rating is built from 51 Jupiler Pro League matches and Kortrijk's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 735 matches.
Key facts
- OH Leuven are 10th on 12 points from 11 games; Kortrijk are bottom on 4 points from 11 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- OH Leuven are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to KV Mechelen.
- Kortrijk are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Gent.
- Last 5 meetings: Kortrijk 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2025, ended Kortrijk 2–0 OH Leuven.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: OH Leuven vs Kortrijk
Has the model earned this number?
OH Leuven at 56%: of 1,625 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.5% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into OH Leuven vs Kortrijk
OH Leuven
Jupiler Pro League
- W2-0KV Mechelen7 November 2026
- W2-1away to St. Truiden1 November 2026
- D2-2Lommel United24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Union St. Gilloise11 October 2026
- W2-0RAAL La Louvière19 September 2026
Kortrijk
Jupiler Pro League
- L0-1away to Gent8 November 2026
- L1-3KV Mechelen4 November 2026
- D1-1away to Standard Liege31 October 2026
- L0-3away to Genk10 October 2026
- W1-0SK Beveren20 September 2026
What these results say
- OH Leuven went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- OH Leuven scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kortrijk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kortrijk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | OH Leuven | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 12 |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: OH Leuven vs Kortrijk
- 8 March 2025Kortrijk 2–0 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 22 September 2024OH Leuven 1–1 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 27 January 2024Kortrijk 0–0 OH LeuvenJupiler Pro League
- 1 September 2023OH Leuven 3–0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 8 January 2023OH Leuven 2–3 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives OH Leuven the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for OH Leuven against 0.67 for Kortrijk. OH Leuven's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.38 for Kortrijk.
How the model reaches 56% for OH Leuven to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for OH Leuven to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, OH Leuven's ratings add 8 points and Kortrijk's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 56%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level40%−3
- OH Leuven's ratings48%+8
- Kortrijk's ratings56%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
OH Leuven at home · Kortrijk away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
OH LeuvenKortrijk
OH Leuven are 10th after 11 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 10th and 17th so far); Kortrijk are 18th after 11 (between 17th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: OH Leuven 11, Kortrijk 11.
OH Leuven score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Kortrijk have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
OH Leuven
- at Genk11 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 23%
- at Antwerp18 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 30%
- vs KVC Westerlo26 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 42%
- at Zulte Waregem17 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 30%
Kortrijk
- vs Lommel United12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 18%
- at St. Truiden20 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 12%
- vs Cercle Brugge26 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 22%
- at KVC Westerlo16 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 15%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.