Nottingham Forest
vs
Chelsea
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Nottingham Forest 2–1 Chelsea
The model makes it 38% Nottingham Forest, 27% draw, 35% Chelsea — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 1.53, Chelsea 1.47.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.
A tight game: Nottingham Forest and Chelsea are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Nottingham Forest's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Chelsea's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Nottingham Forest are 16th on 9 points from 10 games; Chelsea are 5th on 16 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Nottingham Forest have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Manchester City.
- Chelsea have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Sunderland.
- Last 6 meetings: Chelsea 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 4 May 2026, ended Chelsea 1–3 Nottingham Forest.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
Has the model earned this number?
Nottingham Forest at 38%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
Premier League
- W3-1Manchester City7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Brentford31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Ipswich23 October 2026
- L0-1Arsenal18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Crystal Palace11 October 2026
Chelsea
Premier League
- L0-1away to Sunderland8 November 2026
- W2-0Manchester United31 October 2026
- L0-2Tottenham24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Everton17 October 2026
- W5-1Bournemouth10 October 2026
What these results say
- Nottingham Forest conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chelsea had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
- 4 May 2026Chelsea 1–3 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 18 October 2025Nottingham Forest 0–3 ChelseaPremier League
- 25 May 2025Nottingham Forest 0–1 ChelseaPremier League
- 6 October 2024Chelsea 1–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 11 May 2024Nottingham Forest 2–3 ChelseaPremier League
- 2 September 2023Chelsea 0–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
Leading scorers: Nottingham Forest and Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Chelsea
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro53
- M. Rogers51
- Pedro Neto31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Chelsea (5th, with Nottingham Forest 16th), while our numbers lean to Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest rate 0.93 in attack and 0.87 in defence, Chelsea 1.23 and 1.03 (lower is better in defence), so Nottingham Forest have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 7-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nottingham Forest a 0% chance of the title and Chelsea 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nottingham Forest the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Nottingham Forest against 1.47 for Chelsea. Nottingham Forest's attack/defence rating is 0.93/0.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/1.03 for Chelsea.
How the model reaches 38% for Nottingham Forest to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Nottingham Forest to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Nottingham Forest's ratings take away 3 points and Chelsea's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Nottingham Forest's ratings38%−3
- Chelsea's ratings38%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Nottingham Forest at home · Chelsea away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Nottingham ForestChelsea
Nottingham Forest are 16th after 10 Premier League matches (between 10th and 18th so far); Chelsea are 5th after 10 (between 3rd and 7th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Nottingham Forest 10, Chelsea 10.
Chelsea score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Nottingham Forest have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Nottingham Forest
- at Hull City2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Brighton5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 24%
- at Sunderland13 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- vs Everton20 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 39%
Chelsea
- vs Crystal Palace2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 60%
- vs Liverpool5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Manchester City12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs Aston Villa21 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.