Regular Season - 15 · 20 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Chrobry Głogów vs Puszcza Niepołomice I Liga prediction

Stadion Chrobrego

Our model says: Chrobry Głogów 1–0 Puszcza Niepołomice

The model makes it 42% Chrobry Głogów, 30% draw, 28% Puszcza Niepołomice — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Chrobry Głogów 1.30, Puszcza Niepołomice 0.98.

Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Chrobry Głogów's rating is built from 50 Polish I Liga matches and Puszcza Niepołomice's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Chrobry Głogów are 14th on 15 points from 14 games; Puszcza Niepołomice are 16th on 14 points from 14 games — I Liga.
  • Chrobry Głogów have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Nieciecza.
  • Puszcza Niepołomice are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Miedz Legnica.
  • Last 6 meetings: Chrobry Głogów 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 13 March 2026, ended Chrobry Głogów 1–2 Puszcza Niepołomice.

More Polish I Liga predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Chrobry Głogów vs Puszcza Niepołomice

46%
Both teams to score
40%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Chrobry Głogów win Draw Puszcza Niepołomice win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–013%
  3. 0–011%
  4. 0–19%
  5. 2–09%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Chrobry Głogów first; the other scorelines share the remaining 29%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Chrobry Głogów at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Chrobry Głogów vs Puszcza Niepołomice

Chrobry Głogów

I Liga

  • D2-2away to Nieciecza7 November 2026
  • D0-0Arka Gdynia3 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Stal Mielec24 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Polonia Bytom17 October 2026
  • L0-4Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki10 October 2026

Puszcza Niepołomice

I Liga

  • D1-1Miedz Legnica6 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Stal Rzeszów2 November 2026
  • W2-1Lechia Gdansk24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Nieciecza19 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Pogoń Siedlce15 October 2026

What these results say

  • Chrobry Głogów did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Puszcza Niepołomice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Puszcza Niepołomice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Puszcza Niepołomice.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Chrobry Głogów143651517-215
16Puszcza Niepołomice144281620-414

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Chrobry Głogów

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 23% today

Win 17%
Draw 24%
Defeat 30%

Puszcza Niepołomice

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today

Win 21%
Draw 30%
Defeat 36%

From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Chrobry Głogów vs Puszcza Niepołomice

  • 13 March 2026Chrobry Głogów 1–2 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
  • 31 August 2025Puszcza Niepołomice 0–0 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
  • 3 June 2023Puszcza Niepołomice 0–1 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
  • 6 November 2022Chrobry Głogów 1–0 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
  • 3 April 2022Chrobry Głogów 2–2 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
  • 19 September 2021Puszcza Niepołomice 2–2 Chrobry GłogówI Liga

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chrobry Głogów a 0.5% chance of the title and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Chrobry Głogów Puszcza Niepołomice
0.47 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.51
1.59 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.7
1.30 Model expected goals (this match) 0.98

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Chrobry Głogów the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Chrobry Głogów against 0.98 for Puszcza Niepołomice. Chrobry Głogów's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.7 for Puszcza Niepołomice.

Chrobry Głogów carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.25 for Puszcza Niepołomice. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 42% for Chrobry Głogów to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Chrobry Głogów to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Chrobry Głogów's ratings take away 1 point and Puszcza Niepołomice's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Chrobry Głogów's ratings41%−1
  5. Puszcza Niepołomice's ratings42%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Chrobry GłogówPuszcza Niepołomice
14Matches14
3W 6D 5LRecord4W 2D 8L
15 1.1 per gameGoals scored16 1.1 per game
17 1.2 per gameGoals conceded20 1.4 per game
4 of 14Clean sheets1 of 14
7 of 14Failed to score6 of 14
1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
24 1.7 per gameYellow cards38 2.7 per game
1Red cards1

Chrobry Głogów at home · Puszcza Niepołomice away

7Played6
1W 3D 3LRecord1W 1D 4L
3–7Goals for – against7–12
3 of 7Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All I Liga matches this season: Chrobry Głogów 14, Puszcza Niepołomice 14.

Chrobry Głogów scored 013326
Puszcza Niepołomice conceded 452116

Chrobry Głogów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Puszcza Niepołomice have let in 6 there.

Puszcza Niepołomice scored 205334
Chrobry Głogów conceded 325321

Puszcza Niepołomice score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Chrobry Głogów have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Chrobry Głogów

  • vs Unia Skierniewice27 Nov · I Ligawin 47%
  • at Lechia Gdansk5 Dec · I Ligawin 24%
  • vs Stal Rzeszów12 Dec · I Ligawin 48%
  • at Odra Opole6 Feb · I Ligawin 35%
  • vs ŁKS Łódź13 Feb · I Ligawin 35%

Puszcza Niepołomice

  • vs Stal Mielec29 Nov · I Ligawin 48%
  • at Ruch Chorzów6 Dec · I Ligawin 23%
  • at Polonia Warszawa12 Dec · I Ligawin 22%
  • vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki6 Feb · I Ligawin 42%
  • at Odra Opole13 Feb · I Ligawin 35%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.