Regular Season - 15 · 21 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań I Liga prediction

Superauto.pl Stadion Slaski

Our model says: Ruch Chorzów 1–0 Warta Poznań

The model makes it 49% Ruch Chorzów, 28% draw, 23% Warta Poznań — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Ruch Chorzów 1.61, Warta Poznań 0.94.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Ruch Chorzów's rating is built from 48 Polish I Liga matches and Warta Poznań's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Ruch Chorzów are 5th on 22 points from 14 games; Warta Poznań are 9th on 19 points from 14 games — I Liga.
  • Ruch Chorzów have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Stal Mielec.
  • Warta Poznań are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Polonia Warszawa.
  • Last 4 meetings: Ruch Chorzów 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2025, ended Warta Poznań 0–2 Ruch Chorzów.

More Polish I Liga predictions

All Polish I Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań

49%
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Ruch Chorzów win Draw Warta Poznań win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 2–010%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 0–08%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Ruch Chorzów first; the other scorelines share the remaining 36%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Ruch Chorzów at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań

Ruch Chorzów

I Liga

  • L0-2away to Stal Mielec8 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Pogoń Siedlce3 November 2026
  • W2-0Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki25 October 2026
  • W3-0Odra Opole16 October 2026
  • W2-0away to ŁKS Łódź11 October 2026

Warta Poznań

I Liga

  • L0-3Polonia Warszawa7 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Podbeskidzie31 October 2026
  • L0-1ŁKS Łódź26 October 2026
  • W1-0Unia Skierniewice16 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Stal Mielec11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Ruch Chorzów scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Ruch Chorzów had two goals or fewer.
  • Warta Poznań failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Warta Poznań conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Ruch Chorzów146441714+322
9Warta Poznań146172020019

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Ruch Chorzów

Chance to finish in the top two · 19% today

Win 22%
Draw 15%
Defeat 12%

Warta Poznań

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today

Win 5%
Draw 9%
Defeat 10%

From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Ruch Chorzów vs Warta Poznań

  • 3 May 2025Warta Poznań 0–2 Ruch ChorzówI Liga
  • 25 October 2024Ruch Chorzów 2–1 Warta PoznańI Liga
  • 17 February 2024Ruch Chorzów 0–0 Warta PoznańEkstraklasa
  • 14 August 2023Warta Poznań 2–2 Ruch ChorzówEkstraklasa

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ruch Chorzów a 8.5% chance of the title and Warta Poznań 1.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Ruch Chorzów v Warta Poznań has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 47% / 28% / 25% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 49% / 28% / 23%: the biggest move is Ruch Chorzów's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Ruch Chorzów win49%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Warta Poznań win23%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Ruch Chorzów Warta Poznań
0.56 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.53
1.47 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.77
1.61 Model expected goals (this match) 0.94

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ruch Chorzów the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Ruch Chorzów against 0.94 for Warta Poznań. Ruch Chorzów's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.77 for Warta Poznań.

Ruch Chorzów carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.25 for Warta Poznań. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 49% for Ruch Chorzów to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Ruch Chorzów to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Ruch Chorzów's ratings add 2 points and Warta Poznań's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 49%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−1
  4. Ruch Chorzów's ratings45%+2
  5. Warta Poznań's ratings49%+4

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Ruch ChorzówWarta Poznań
14Matches14
6W 4D 4LRecord6W 1D 7L
17 1.2 per gameGoals scored20 1.4 per game
14 1.0 per gameGoals conceded20 1.4 per game
6 of 14Clean sheets4 of 14
5 of 14Failed to score3 of 14
3 of 3Penalties scored3 of 3
27 1.9 per gameYellow cards23 1.6 per game
1Red cards1

Ruch Chorzów at home · Warta Poznań away

6Played9
4W 1D 1LRecord3W 1D 5L
12–6Goals for – against13–14
3 of 6Clean sheets2 of 9

League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All I Liga matches this season: Ruch Chorzów 14, Warta Poznań 14.

Ruch Chorzów scored 113326
Warta Poznań conceded 414324

Ruch Chorzów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Warta Poznań have let in 4 there.

Warta Poznań scored 725323
Ruch Chorzów conceded 111174

Warta Poznań score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); Ruch Chorzów have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Ruch Chorzów

  • at Arka Gdynia28 Nov · I Ligawin 31%
  • vs Puszcza Niepołomice6 Dec · I Ligawin 49%
  • vs Nieciecza12 Dec · I Ligawin 48%
  • at Miedz Legnica6 Feb · I Ligawin 29%
  • vs Polonia Warszawa13 Feb · I Ligawin 42%

Warta Poznań

  • vs Pogoń Siedlce27 Nov · I Ligawin 46%
  • at Stal Rzeszów6 Dec · I Ligawin 33%
  • vs Polonia Bytom12 Dec · I Ligawin 40%
  • vs Lechia Gdansk6 Feb · I Ligawin 40%
  • vs Nieciecza13 Feb · I Ligawin 42%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.