Regular Season - 16 · 27 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Chrobry Głogów vs Unia Skierniewice I Liga prediction

Stadion Chrobrego

Our model says: Chrobry Głogów 2–1 Unia Skierniewice

The model makes it 47% Chrobry Głogów, 27% draw, 26% Unia Skierniewice — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Chrobry Głogów 1.70, Unia Skierniewice 1.13.

Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Chrobry Głogów's rating is built from 50 Polish I Liga matches and Unia Skierniewice's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Chrobry Głogów are 14th on 15 points from 14 games; Unia Skierniewice are 17th on 14 points from 14 games — I Liga.
  • Chrobry Głogów have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Nieciecza.
  • Unia Skierniewice have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-3 win away to Odra Opole.

More Polish I Liga predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Chrobry Głogów vs Unia Skierniewice

56%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Chrobry Głogów win Draw Unia Skierniewice win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–09%
  5. 0–06%
  6. 1–26%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Chrobry Głogów first; the other scorelines share the remaining 41%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Chrobry Głogów at 47%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Chrobry Głogów vs Unia Skierniewice

Chrobry Głogów

I Liga

  • D2-2away to Nieciecza7 November 2026
  • D0-0Arka Gdynia3 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Stal Mielec24 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Polonia Bytom17 October 2026
  • L0-4Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki10 October 2026

Unia Skierniewice

I Liga

  • W5-3away to Odra Opole6 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Lechia Gdansk31 October 2026
  • L1-2Polonia Bytom24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Warta Poznań16 October 2026
  • D2-2Nieciecza10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Chrobry Głogów did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Unia Skierniewice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Unia Skierniewice failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Unia Skierniewice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Chrobry Głogów143651517-215
17Unia Skierniewice144282026-614

Where the two sides stand. Full table

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chrobry Głogów a 0.5% chance of the title and Unia Skierniewice 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Chrobry Głogów Unia Skierniewice
0.47 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.59
1.59 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.22
1.70 Model expected goals (this match) 1.13

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Chrobry Głogów the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Chrobry Głogów against 1.13 for Unia Skierniewice. Chrobry Głogów's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2.22 for Unia Skierniewice.

Chrobry Głogów carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.2 for Unia Skierniewice. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 47% for Chrobry Głogów to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Chrobry Głogów to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Chrobry Głogów's ratings change nothing and Unia Skierniewice's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 47%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Chrobry Głogów's ratings44%±0
  4. Unia Skierniewice's ratings47%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Chrobry GłogówUnia Skierniewice
14Matches14
3W 6D 5LRecord4W 2D 8L
15 1.1 per gameGoals scored20 1.4 per game
17 1.2 per gameGoals conceded26 1.9 per game
4 of 14Clean sheets2 of 14
7 of 14Failed to score3 of 14
1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 3
24 1.7 per gameYellow cards29 2.1 per game
1Red cards2

Chrobry Głogów at home · Unia Skierniewice away

7Played7
1W 3D 3LRecord2W 1D 4L
3–7Goals for – against11–14
3 of 7Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All I Liga matches this season: Chrobry Głogów 14, Unia Skierniewice 14.

Chrobry Głogów scored 013326
Unia Skierniewice conceded 4322511

Chrobry Głogów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Unia Skierniewice have let in 11 there.

Unia Skierniewice scored 133444
Chrobry Głogów conceded 325321

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Chrobry Głogów

  • at Lechia Gdansk5 Dec · I Ligawin 24%
  • vs Stal Rzeszów12 Dec · I Ligawin 48%
  • at Odra Opole6 Feb · I Ligawin 35%
  • vs ŁKS Łódź13 Feb · I Ligawin 35%

Unia Skierniewice

  • vs ŁKS Łódź5 Dec · I Ligawin 35%
  • at Stal Mielec12 Dec · I Ligawin 29%
  • vs Polonia Warszawa6 Feb · I Ligawin 34%
  • at Arka Gdynia13 Feb · I Ligawin 24%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.