Podbeskidzie
vs
Nieciecza
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Podbeskidzie 2–1 Nieciecza
The model makes it 39% Podbeskidzie, 28% draw, 33% Nieciecza — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Podbeskidzie 1.47, Nieciecza 1.32.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Podbeskidzie's rating is built from 14 Polish I Liga matches and Nieciecza's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Podbeskidzie are 15th on 15 points from 14 games; Nieciecza are 6th on 22 points from 14 games — I Liga.
- Podbeskidzie have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Arka Gdynia.
- Nieciecza are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Chrobry Głogów.
- Last 6 meetings: Podbeskidzie 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Nieciecza 1–1 Podbeskidzie.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Podbeskidzie vs Nieciecza
Has the model earned this number?
Podbeskidzie at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Podbeskidzie vs Nieciecza
Podbeskidzie
I Liga
- L1-3away to Arka Gdynia7 November 2026
- D1-1Warta Poznań31 October 2026
- W2-1Stal Rzeszów25 October 2026
- L0-1away to ŁKS Łódź18 October 2026
- W1-0Pogoń Siedlce9 October 2026
Nieciecza
I Liga
- D2-2Chrobry Głogów7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Miedz Legnica31 October 2026
- L1-3away to Arka Gdynia24 October 2026
- W2-0Puszcza Niepołomice19 October 2026
- D2-2away to Unia Skierniewice10 October 2026
What these results say
- Podbeskidzie scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Podbeskidzie conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nieciecza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nieciecza failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nieciecza conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Podbeskidzie | 14 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
| 6 | Nieciecza | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Podbeskidzie
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today
Nieciecza
Chance to finish in the top two · 17% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Podbeskidzie vs Nieciecza
- 18 July 2026Nieciecza 1–1 PodbeskidzieFriendlies Clubs
- 30 March 2024Podbeskidzie 2–1 NiecieczaI Liga
- 17 September 2023Nieciecza 2–2 PodbeskidzieI Liga
- 30 April 2023Podbeskidzie 2–2 NiecieczaI Liga
- 2 October 2022Nieciecza 2–2 PodbeskidzieI Liga
- 6 June 2020Podbeskidzie 1–0 NiecieczaI Liga
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Nieciecza (6th, with Podbeskidzie 15th), while our numbers lean to Podbeskidzie. Podbeskidzie rate 0.49 in attack and 1.80 in defence, Nieciecza 0.61 and 1.85 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Podbeskidzie a 0.2% chance of the title and Nieciecza 7.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Podbeskidzie the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Podbeskidzie against 1.32 for Nieciecza. Podbeskidzie's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.85 for Nieciecza.
How the model reaches 39% for Podbeskidzie to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Podbeskidzie to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Podbeskidzie's ratings take away 3 points and Nieciecza's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Podbeskidzie's ratings41%−3
- Nieciecza's ratings39%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Podbeskidzie at home · Nieciecza away
League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Podbeskidzie 14, Nieciecza 14.
Podbeskidzie score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Nieciecza have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Podbeskidzie
- vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki28 Nov · I Ligawin 40%
- at Polonia Warszawa6 Dec · I Ligawin 20%
- vs Miedz Legnica12 Dec · I Ligawin 35%
- vs Stal Mielec6 Feb · I Ligawin 46%
- at Lechia Gdansk13 Feb · I Ligawin 23%
Nieciecza
- vs Stal Rzeszów28 Nov · I Ligawin 54%
- at Polonia Bytom7 Dec · I Ligawin 28%
- at Ruch Chorzów12 Dec · I Ligawin 25%
- vs Pogoń Siedlce6 Feb · I Ligawin 50%
- at Warta Poznań13 Feb · I Ligawin 31%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.