Regular Season - 15 · 21 November 2026, 14:30 UTC

Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec I Liga prediction

Stadion Polonii, Warsaw

Our model says: Polonia Warszawa 2–1 Stal Mielec

The model makes it 58% Polonia Warszawa, 23% draw, 19% Stal Mielec — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).

Expected goals: Polonia Warszawa 2.21, Stal Mielec 1.07.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Polonia Warszawa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Polonia Warszawa's rating is built from 49 Polish I Liga matches and Stal Mielec's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Polonia Warszawa are top on 25 points from 14 games; Stal Mielec are 11th on 19 points from 14 games — I Liga.
  • Polonia Warszawa are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Warta Poznań.
  • Stal Mielec are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Ruch Chorzów.
  • Last 2 meetings: Polonia Warszawa 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 February 2026, ended Polonia Warszawa 5–2 Stal Mielec.

More Polish I Liga predictions

All Polish I Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec

59%
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Polonia Warszawa win Draw Stal Mielec win
  1. 2–110%
  2. 1–19%
  3. 2–09%
  4. 1–08%
  5. 3–17%
  6. 3–07%
  7. 2–25%

Scores read Polonia Warszawa first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Polonia Warszawa at 58%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec

Polonia Warszawa

I Liga

  • W3-0away to Warta Poznań7 November 2026
  • D1-1away to ŁKS Łódź2 November 2026
  • D1-1Miedz Legnica23 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki17 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Arka Gdynia10 October 2026

Stal Mielec

I Liga

  • W2-0Ruch Chorzów8 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki30 October 2026
  • D0-0Chrobry Głogów24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Miedz Legnica17 October 2026
  • W2-1Warta Poznań11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Polonia Warszawa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Polonia Warszawa scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Polonia Warszawa147432315+825
11Stal Mielec145451927-819

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Polonia Warszawa

Chance to finish in the top two · 53% today

Win 57%
Draw 48%
Defeat 43%

Stal Mielec

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 20% today

Win 12%
Draw 20%
Defeat 22%

From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec

  • 8 February 2026Polonia Warszawa 5–2 Stal MielecI Liga
  • 2 August 2025Stal Mielec 1–3 Polonia WarszawaI Liga

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Polonia Warszawa a 34.2% chance of the title and Stal Mielec 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Polonia Warszawa v Stal Mielec has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 56% / 23% / 21% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 58% / 23% / 19%: the biggest move is Polonia Warszawa's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Polonia Warszawa win58%▲ +2
  2. Draw23%=
  3. Stal Mielec win19%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Polonia Warszawa Stal Mielec
0.63 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.57
1.56 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.16
2.21 Model expected goals (this match) 1.07

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Polonia Warszawa the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Polonia Warszawa against 1.07 for Stal Mielec. Polonia Warszawa's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.16 for Stal Mielec.

Polonia Warszawa carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.19 for Stal Mielec.

How the model reaches 58% for Polonia Warszawa to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Polonia Warszawa to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Polonia Warszawa's ratings add 6 points and Stal Mielec's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 58%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level45%+1
  4. Polonia Warszawa's ratings51%+6
  5. Stal Mielec's ratings58%+7

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Polonia WarszawaStal Mielec
14Matches14
7W 4D 3LRecord5W 4D 5L
23 1.6 per gameGoals scored19 1.4 per game
15 1.1 per gameGoals conceded27 1.9 per game
4 of 14Clean sheets3 of 14
1 of 14Failed to score4 of 14
2 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
17 1.2 per gameYellow cards27 1.9 per game
4-2-3-1 1×Usual shape4-4-1-1 1×

Polonia Warszawa at home · Stal Mielec away

6Played6
2W 3D 1LRecord2W 0D 4L
11–9Goals for – against4–17
1 of 6Clean sheets1 of 6

League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All I Liga matches this season: Polonia Warszawa 14, Stal Mielec 14.

Polonia Warszawa scored 214429
Stal Mielec conceded 324495

Polonia Warszawa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Stal Mielec have let in 5 there.

Stal Mielec scored 623341
Polonia Warszawa conceded 232243

Stal Mielec score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Polonia Warszawa have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Polonia Warszawa

  • at Odra Opole28 Nov · I Ligawin 44%
  • vs Podbeskidzie6 Dec · I Ligawin 54%
  • vs Puszcza Niepołomice12 Dec · I Ligawin 52%
  • at Unia Skierniewice6 Feb · I Ligawin 40%
  • at Ruch Chorzów13 Feb · I Ligawin 30%

Stal Mielec

  • at Puszcza Niepołomice29 Nov · I Ligawin 26%
  • vs Arka Gdynia4 Dec · I Ligawin 39%
  • vs Unia Skierniewice12 Dec · I Ligawin 47%
  • at Podbeskidzie6 Feb · I Ligawin 28%
  • vs Stal Rzeszów13 Feb · I Ligawin 48%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.