Regular Season - 15 · 20 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Miedz Legnica vs ŁKS Łódź I Liga prediction

Legnica

Our model says: Miedz Legnica 1–0 ŁKS Łódź

The model makes it 40% Miedz Legnica, 31% draw, 29% ŁKS Łódź — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Miedz Legnica 1.24, ŁKS Łódź 0.96.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Miedz Legnica's rating is built from 48 Polish I Liga matches and ŁKS Łódź's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Miedz Legnica are 8th on 20 points from 14 games; ŁKS Łódź are 2nd on 25 points from 14 games — I Liga.
  • Miedz Legnica are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Puszcza Niepołomice.
  • ŁKS Łódź are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Stal Rzeszów.
  • Last 6 meetings: Miedz Legnica 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended ŁKS Łódź 0–0 Miedz Legnica.

More Polish I Liga predictions

All Polish I Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Miedz Legnica vs ŁKS Łódź

45%
Both teams to score
38%
Over 2.5 goals
62%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Miedz Legnica win Draw ŁKS Łódź win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–013%
  3. 0–012%
  4. 0–110%
  5. 2–09%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Miedz Legnica first; the other scorelines share the remaining 28%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Miedz Legnica at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Miedz Legnica vs ŁKS Łódź

Miedz Legnica

I Liga

  • D1-1away to Puszcza Niepołomice6 November 2026
  • D1-1Nieciecza31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Polonia Warszawa23 October 2026
  • W3-0Stal Mielec17 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Odra Opole11 October 2026

ŁKS Łódź

I Liga

  • W1-0Stal Rzeszów8 November 2026
  • D1-1Polonia Warszawa2 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Warta Poznań26 October 2026
  • W1-0Podbeskidzie18 October 2026
  • L0-2Ruch Chorzów11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Miedz Legnica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Miedz Legnica scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Miedz Legnica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for ŁKS Łódź had two goals or fewer.
  • ŁKS Łódź scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Miedz Legnica145542013+720
2ŁKS Łódź147431712+525

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Miedz Legnica

Chance to finish in the top two · 14% today

Win 17%
Draw 12%
Defeat 9%

ŁKS Łódź

Chance to finish in the top two · 32% today

Win 41%
Draw 31%
Defeat 26%

From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Miedz Legnica vs ŁKS Łódź

  • 28 February 2026ŁKS Łódź 0–0 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
  • 19 August 2025Miedz Legnica 2–1 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga
  • 23 February 2025ŁKS Łódź 0–1 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
  • 10 August 2024Miedz Legnica 1–0 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga
  • 25 March 2022ŁKS Łódź 0–1 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
  • 11 September 2021Miedz Legnica 0–2 ŁKS ŁódźI Liga

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour ŁKS Łódź (second, with Miedz Legnica eighth), while our numbers lean to Miedz Legnica. Miedz Legnica rate 0.54 in attack and 1.48 in defence, ŁKS Łódź 0.54 and 1.41 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Miedz Legnica a 5.9% chance of the title and ŁKS Łódź 16.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Miedz Legnica ŁKS Łódź
0.54 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.54
1.48 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.41
1.24 Model expected goals (this match) 0.96

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Miedz Legnica the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Miedz Legnica against 0.96 for ŁKS Łódź. Miedz Legnica's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.41 for ŁKS Łódź.

Miedz Legnica carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.38 for ŁKS Łódź. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 40% for Miedz Legnica to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Miedz Legnica to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Miedz Legnica's ratings take away 1 point and ŁKS Łódź's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Miedz Legnica's ratings41%−1
  5. ŁKS Łódź's ratings40%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Miedz LegnicaŁKS Łódź
14Matches14
5W 5D 4LRecord7W 4D 3L
20 1.4 per gameGoals scored17 1.2 per game
13 0.9 per gameGoals conceded12 0.9 per game
4 of 14Clean sheets5 of 14
2 of 14Failed to score3 of 14
1 of 1Penalties scored3 of 5
24 1.7 per gameYellow cards27 1.9 per game
2Red cards0

Miedz Legnica at home · ŁKS Łódź away

8Played6
3W 3D 2LRecord2W 3D 1L
12–8Goals for – against5–5
2 of 8Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All I Liga matches this season: Miedz Legnica 14, ŁKS Łódź 14.

Miedz Legnica scored 341238
ŁKS Łódź conceded 023123

Miedz Legnica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); ŁKS Łódź have let in 3 there.

ŁKS Łódź scored 205335
Miedz Legnica conceded 413202

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Miedz Legnica

  • vs Polonia Bytom30 Nov · I Ligawin 45%
  • at Pogoń Siedlce4 Dec · I Ligawin 35%
  • at Podbeskidzie12 Dec · I Ligawin 35%
  • vs Ruch Chorzów6 Feb · I Ligawin 41%
  • at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki13 Feb · I Ligawin 32%

ŁKS Łódź

  • vs Lechia Gdansk29 Nov · I Ligawin 46%
  • at Unia Skierniewice5 Dec · I Ligawin 38%
  • vs Pogoń Siedlce12 Dec · I Ligawin 51%
  • at Polonia Bytom6 Feb · I Ligawin 31%
  • at Chrobry Głogów13 Feb · I Ligawin 33%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.