Regular Season - 15 · 22 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

Unia Skierniewice vs Pogoń Siedlce I Liga prediction

Stadion Miejski, Skierniewice

Our model says: Unia Skierniewice 2–1 Pogoń Siedlce

The model makes it 45% Unia Skierniewice, 27% draw, 28% Pogoń Siedlce — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Unia Skierniewice 1.65, Pogoń Siedlce 1.20.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Unia Skierniewice's rating is built from 14 Polish I Liga matches and Pogoń Siedlce's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Unia Skierniewice are 17th on 14 points from 14 games; Pogoń Siedlce are 10th on 19 points from 14 games — I Liga.
  • Unia Skierniewice have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-3 win away to Odra Opole.
  • Pogoń Siedlce are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
  • Last 2 meetings: Unia Skierniewice 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 June 2026, ended Pogoń Siedlce 0–3 Unia Skierniewice.

More Polish I Liga predictions

All Polish I Liga predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Unia Skierniewice vs Pogoń Siedlce

57%
Both teams to score
54%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Unia Skierniewice win Draw Pogoń Siedlce win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 0–16%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Unia Skierniewice first; the other scorelines share the remaining 43%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Unia Skierniewice at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Unia Skierniewice vs Pogoń Siedlce

Unia Skierniewice

I Liga

  • W5-3away to Odra Opole6 November 2026
  • L2-3away to Lechia Gdansk31 October 2026
  • L1-2Polonia Bytom24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Warta Poznań16 October 2026
  • D2-2Nieciecza10 October 2026

Pogoń Siedlce

I Liga

  • W2-1Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki8 November 2026
  • D1-1Ruch Chorzów3 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Odra Opole25 October 2026
  • L3-4Stal Rzeszów18 October 2026
  • L1-3Puszcza Niepołomice15 October 2026

What these results say

  • Unia Skierniewice conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Unia Skierniewice failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Unia Skierniewice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Pogoń Siedlce scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Pogoń Siedlce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Pogoń Siedlce.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Unia Skierniewice144282026-614
10Pogoń Siedlce145451717019

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Unia Skierniewice

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 41% today

Win 34%
Draw 43%
Defeat 50%

Pogoń Siedlce

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today

Win 11%
Draw 18%
Defeat 23%

From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Unia Skierniewice vs Pogoń Siedlce

  • 27 June 2026Pogoń Siedlce 0–3 Unia SkierniewiceFriendlies Clubs
  • 30 January 2026Unia Skierniewice 5–1 Pogoń SiedlceFriendlies Clubs

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pogoń Siedlce (10th, with Unia Skierniewice 17th), while our numbers lean to Unia Skierniewice. Unia Skierniewice rate 0.59 in attack and 2.22 in defence, Pogoń Siedlce 0.45 and 1.72 (lower is better in defence), so Unia Skierniewice have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Unia Skierniewice a 0.1% chance of the title and Pogoń Siedlce 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Unia Skierniewice Pogoń Siedlce
0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.45
2.22 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.72
1.65 Model expected goals (this match) 1.20

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Unia Skierniewice the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Unia Skierniewice against 1.20 for Pogoń Siedlce. Unia Skierniewice's attack/defence rating is 0.59/2.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.72 for Pogoń Siedlce.

Unia Skierniewice carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.19 for Pogoń Siedlce. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 45% for Unia Skierniewice to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Unia Skierniewice to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Unia Skierniewice's ratings add 2 points and Pogoń Siedlce's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 45%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Unia Skierniewice's ratings46%+2
  4. Pogoń Siedlce's ratings45%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Unia SkierniewicePogoń Siedlce
14Matches14
4W 2D 8LRecord5W 4D 5L
20 1.4 per gameGoals scored17 1.2 per game
26 1.9 per gameGoals conceded17 1.2 per game
2 of 14Clean sheets4 of 14
3 of 14Failed to score3 of 14
2 of 3Penalties scored1 of 3
29 2.1 per gameYellow cards29 2.1 per game
2Red cards1

Unia Skierniewice at home · Pogoń Siedlce away

7Played5
2W 1D 4LRecord1W 2D 2L
9–12Goals for – against3–4
1 of 7Clean sheets2 of 5

League matches only, I Liga, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All I Liga matches this season: Unia Skierniewice 14, Pogoń Siedlce 14.

Unia Skierniewice scored 133444
Pogoń Siedlce conceded 114345
Pogoń Siedlce scored 235312
Unia Skierniewice conceded 4322511

Pogoń Siedlce score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Unia Skierniewice have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Unia Skierniewice

  • at Chrobry Głogów27 Nov · I Ligawin 26%
  • vs ŁKS Łódź5 Dec · I Ligawin 34%
  • at Stal Mielec12 Dec · I Ligawin 29%
  • vs Polonia Warszawa6 Feb · I Ligawin 34%
  • at Arka Gdynia13 Feb · I Ligawin 24%

Pogoń Siedlce

  • at Warta Poznań27 Nov · I Ligawin 25%
  • vs Miedz Legnica4 Dec · I Ligawin 34%
  • at ŁKS Łódź12 Dec · I Ligawin 20%
  • at Nieciecza6 Feb · I Ligawin 23%
  • vs Polonia Bytom13 Feb · I Ligawin 36%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.