Stenhousemuir
vs
Queen's Park
Championship prediction
Our model says: Stenhousemuir 1–0 Queen's Park
The model makes it 57% Stenhousemuir, 25% draw, 18% Queen's Park — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Stenhousemuir 1.86, Queen's Park 0.81.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,726 settled matches.
Edge to Stenhousemuir: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Stenhousemuir's rating is built from 17 Scottish Championship matches and Queen's Park's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Stenhousemuir are 2nd on 23 points from 13 games; Queen's Park are bottom on 7 points from 12 games — Championship.
- Stenhousemuir have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Livingston.
- Queen's Park have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Dunfermline.
- Last 5 meetings: Queen's Park 3 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended Queen's Park 0–2 Stenhousemuir.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park
Has the model earned this number?
Stenhousemuir at 57%: of 1,310 settled 50–65% forecasts, 57.0% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park
Stenhousemuir
Championship
- L0-3Livingston30 October 2026
- L0-1Dunfermline27 October 2026
- L0-3away to Partick24 October 2026
- D1-1Raith Rovers17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Inverness CT10 October 2026
Queen's Park
Championship
- L0-1Dunfermline24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Morton17 October 2026
- W2-1Inverness CT13 October 2026
- L0-2away to Raith Rovers10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Arbroath25 September 2026
What these results say
- Stenhousemuir did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Stenhousemuir conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stenhousemuir failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Queen's Park conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Queen's Park failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 23 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stenhousemuir vs Queen's Park
- 22 August 2026Queen's Park 0–2 StenhousemuirChampionship
- 10 April 2021Stenhousemuir 1–3 Queen's ParkLeague Two
- 28 November 2020Queen's Park 3–1 StenhousemuirLeague Two
- 7 March 2020Stenhousemuir 0–0 Queen's ParkLeague Two
- 4 January 2020Queen's Park 2–1 StenhousemuirLeague Two
The two sides
Stenhousemuir carry a model rating of 6.05 against 5.78 for Queen's Park.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Stenhousemuir and 0.81 for Queen's Park.
Stenhousemuir rate 0.42 in attack and 2.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Queen's Park rate 0.32 and 2.72.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stenhousemuir a 3.2% chance of the title and Queen's Park 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stenhousemuir the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Stenhousemuir against 0.81 for Queen's Park. Stenhousemuir's attack/defence rating is 0.42/2.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.32/2.72 for Queen's Park.
How the model reaches 57% for Stenhousemuir to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stenhousemuir to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Stenhousemuir's ratings add 7 points and Queen's Park's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Stenhousemuir's ratings50%+7
- Queen's Park's ratings57%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Stenhousemuir at home · Queen's Park away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Stenhousemuir 13, Queen's Park 12.
Queen's Park score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Stenhousemuir have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Stenhousemuir
- at Arbroath21 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- vs Ayr Utd5 Dec · Championshipwin 49%
- at Dunfermline12 Dec · Championshipwin 23%
- vs Inverness CT19 Dec · Championshipwin 37%
Queen's Park
- vs Livingston21 Nov · Championshipwin 23%
- vs Arbroath5 Dec · Championshipwin 39%
- at Inverness CT12 Dec · Championshipwin 13%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.