Partick
vs
Morton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Partick 2–0 Morton
The model makes it 71% Partick, 18% draw, 11% Morton — fair odds of 1.41, 5.56 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Partick 2.75, Morton 0.82.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Partick are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Partick are 3rd on 21 points from 10 games; Morton are 9th on 7 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Partick are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Ayr Utd.
- Morton have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Queen's Park.
- Last 6 meetings: Partick 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Morton 0–1 Partick.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Partick vs Morton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Partick at 71% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Partick vs Morton
Partick
- W1-0away to Ayr Utd16 October 2026
- W2-1away to Livingston10 October 2026
- W3-0Arbroath3 October 2026
- D0-0Raith Rovers19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Stenhousemuir15 September 2026
Morton
- W2-0Queen's Park17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Arbroath10 October 2026
- L1-2Raith Rovers3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Inverness CT25 September 2026
- L0-1Dunfermline19 September 2026
What these results say
- Morton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Partick | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 21 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Partick
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 29% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Partick vs Morton
- 1 August 2026Morton 0–1 PartickChampionship
- 13 March 2026Morton 1–2 PartickChampionship
- 3 January 2026Partick 3–2 MortonChampionship
- 11 October 2025Morton 1–1 PartickChampionship
- 9 August 2025Partick 1–1 MortonChampionship
- 29 March 2025Morton 0–1 PartickChampionship
The two sides
Partick carry a model rating of 6.27 against 5.82 for Morton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.75 goals for Partick and 0.82 for Morton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Partick rate 0.55 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Morton rate 0.39 and 3.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Partick a 28.9% chance of the title and Morton 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Partick the highest probability at 71%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.75 expected goals for Partick against 0.82 for Morton. Partick's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/3.07 for Morton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Partick at home · Morton away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Partick 10, Morton 11.
Partick score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Morton have let in 4 there.
Morton score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Partick have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Partick
- at Queen's Park7 Nov · Championshipwin 53%
- vs Inverness CT14 Nov · Championshipwin 53%
- at Raith Rovers21 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
Morton
- vs Stenhousemuir7 Nov · Championshipwin 23%
- at Livingston14 Nov · Championshipwin 13%
- at Dunfermline21 Nov · Championshipwin 11%
- vs Inverness CT5 Dec · Championshipwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.