Ayr Utd
vs
Queen's Park
Championship prediction
Our model says: Ayr Utd 1–0 Queen's Park
The model makes it 51% Ayr Utd, 26% draw, 23% Queen's Park — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Ayr Utd 1.74, Queen's Park 0.97.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Ayr Utd: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ayr Utd are 7th on 12 points from 11 games; Queen's Park are bottom on 7 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Ayr Utd have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Partick.
- Queen's Park have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Morton.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 18 September 2026, ended Queen's Park 0–2 Ayr Utd.
More Scottish Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ayr Utd at 51% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park
Ayr Utd
- L0-1Partick16 October 2026
- D1-1Dunfermline10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Livingston3 October 2026
- L0-1Stenhousemuir25 September 2026
- W2-0away to Queen's Park18 September 2026
Queen's Park
- L0-2away to Morton17 October 2026
- W2-1Inverness CT13 October 2026
- L0-2away to Raith Rovers10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Arbroath25 September 2026
- L0-2Ayr Utd18 September 2026
What these results say
- Ayr Utd conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ayr Utd had two goals or fewer.
- Queen's Park conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Queen's Park failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ayr Utd
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 74% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Ayr Utd vs Queen's Park
- 18 September 2026Queen's Park 0–2 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 14 March 2026Queen's Park 1–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 10 March 2026Ayr Utd 1–2 Queen's ParkChampionship
- 25 October 2025Queen's Park 0–0 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 30 August 2025Ayr Utd 1–1 Queen's ParkChampionship
- 26 April 2025Ayr Utd 2–2 Queen's ParkChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ayr Utd carry a model rating of 5.93 against 5.79 for Queen's Park. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Ayr Utd and 0.97 for Queen's Park. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ayr Utd rate 0.39 in attack and 2.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Queen's Park rate 0.33 and 2.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ayr Utd the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Ayr Utd against 0.97 for Queen's Park. Ayr Utd's attack/defence rating is 0.39/2.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.33/2.74 for Queen's Park.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ayr Utd at home · Queen's Park away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Ayr Utd 11, Queen's Park 11.
Ayr Utd score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Queen's Park have let in 5 there.
Queen's Park score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); Ayr Utd have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ayr Utd
- at Arbroath7 Nov · Championshipwin 15%
- vs Raith Rovers14 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
- at Inverness CT20 Nov · Championshipwin 20%
- at Stenhousemuir5 Dec · Championshipwin 16%
Queen's Park
- vs Partick7 Nov · Championshipwin 21%
- at Stenhousemuir14 Nov · Championshipwin 12%
- vs Livingston21 Nov · Championshipwin 23%
- vs Arbroath5 Dec · Championshipwin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.